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School principals warn that they may have to lay off hundreds of teachers because now they have given up hope of recruiting new foreign students by the start of the next school year.
They have reached a critical moment for staffing decisions after the Ministry of Education confirmed its provisional 2021 national student staffing allocations this week, showing 1,112 schools will have reduced staffing, 1,035 will get raises and 274 will remain unchanged.
Secondary Principals Association Vice President Scott Haines said many of the schools facing a reduction in domestic staff had also lost foreign students and were receiving reduced donations from parents struggling financially due to the pandemic.
“It’s a perfect storm for schools that are seriously struggling to put together their programs for students next year,” he said.
His own school, Waimea College in Nelson, faces a $ 750,000 revenue drop next year, mostly due to the loss of three-quarters of its 80 regular foreign students.
He says teacher job losses “would have to be in the hundreds” and similar reductions are expected in most schools that have international students.
Patrick Walsh of John Paul College in Rotorua, who chairs the International Schools Education Business Association (Sieba), said many schools faced layoffs of teachers, increased class sizes, and reduced range of subjects they are offered.
“A lot of principals are looking down now. They cannot afford to retain the number of teachers they have employed during their [domestic] right to staff, “he said.
“They have been having conversations with their boards about that, and if the ministry doesn’t come to negotiate with those schools, those conversations will materialize in conversations with those teachers and they cannot be held back.
“That, to me, is very discouraging, because not only will it cause teachers to lose their jobs, but schools will have to pay layoffs that they can’t afford.”
Tauranga-based Sieba CEO John van der Zwan said some Bay of Plenty schools are now not expecting any international students next year.
However, the pattern varies across the country for two reasons.
First, schools that rely primarily on Asian students are less affected because most of their students come for several years, while other schools rely on short-term students from Europe, Japan, and South America.
Second, the ministry foresees a reduction in national lists in all regions except Auckland and the Bay of Plenty, but in some Auckland schools, national growth will largely offset the loss of foreign students.
Mt Albert Grammar principal Patrick Drumm said he expected a drop of just over 100 international students, but an increase of just over 100 domestic students.
Macleans College principal Steve Hargreaves said he was “cutting” spending on buildings and information technology, and putting off maintenance, but would not have to fire anyone.
“We expect our number of domestic students to increase, because we have a lot of infill and growth housing in the area, and we will take some on the ballot from outside the area. That is enough to offset the decline in international students for now,” he said .
Pakuranga College principal Mike Williams said he expects only a quarter of the school’s 200 regular international students next year, but hoped to cope without layoffs through wear and tear and ending some fixed-term teaching contracts. .
“It’s pretty clear that the students won’t be coming early next year. We might have a little bit of them later in the year and hopefully we can see a reasonable number coming back in 2022,” he said.
“We are lucky to have gotten some [reserves] outside on rainy days, and now it’s raining heavily. “
But Auckland Grammar principal Tim O’Connor said his school “will depend on additional revenue streams, borders being opened for international students in order to keep our levels of service where they are today.”
“Otherwise, significant cuts will be required to avoid a deficit budget to start a new school year,” he said.
Post Primary Teachers Association (PPTA) President Jack Boyle said the secondary teachers’ collective bargaining agreement includes provisions for reassignment and training if teachers are fired, and the ministry also had provisions to pay for moving costs if teachers move into hard-staffed areas. Those provisions could be expanded.
“We will have talks about redeployment options, not forgetting all the confusion and change due to Covid-19,” he said.
New Zealand Educational Institute President Liam Rutherford said he was not concerned about the ministry’s projected loss of 108 teaching positions in elementary schools, where it is expected to decline next year.
“We still have a significant teacher shortage and an upcoming small reduction in elementary school enrollment will do nothing to make up for the overall shortage,” he said.
“The principals I spoke to this week told me that the teacher shortage continues to be a major problem across the country.”