Covid 19 coronavirus: government ‘missed an opportunity’ to move to alert level 1.5, says epidemiologist

The government “missed an opportunity” by abandoning the mandate to wear masks in public transport when it returned most of New Zealand to near normalcy, says a leading epidemiologist.

University of Otago professor Michael Baker said the cabinet should have moved the country to “alert level 1.5” in case Auckland residents had spread the virus on their travels and gone to bed with normalization. of facial coverings.

“The principle now is to be tough on the transmission of the virus, but at the same time not tough on people.”

Most of New Zealand woke up almost normally this morning to Alert Level 1, while Auckland is scheduled to go into the full Alert Level 2 setting at 11:59 p.m.

That means outside of the Super City, masks are no longer mandatory on public transportation and on airplanes, although it is strongly recommended, and there are no limits to gatherings.

But people are still being asked to use the Covid Tracer app, monitor their health and practice good hygiene, which Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern called “a small price to pay” in exchange for staying at alert level 1. for “as long as possible.”

Auckland residents will remain at Alert Level 2 for at least another two weeks, with the meeting limit extended to 100 people.

The cabinet will reconsider the city’s alert level on October 5, and is likely to join the rest of New Zealand in its alert level 1 freedoms on October 7.

“Essentially Auckland needs more time. While we have reasonable confidence that we are on the right track, that cautious approach is still needed,” Ardern said.

“This was the center of the outbreak and that is why that precaution was required here.”

With no new community cases for seven days, Chief Health Officer Dr. Ashley Bloomfield said the situation was better than he expected, as this time last week he anticipated lifting collection restrictions for just 50 people.

Bloomfield said the masks would remain part of New Zealand’s response, but decided to recommend only “strongly encouraging” their use in public transport and aircraft under alert level 1, rather than forcing them.

Baker believes this was a “missed opportunity.”

Instead, he would have preferred a “1.5 alert level” with limits on “high-risk indoor activities,” such as clubs, concerts, and large gym classes, and continued use of masks on public transportation and on airplanes.

Baker said that should continue until there is complete confidence that the virus has been eliminated again, which is when there has been no community transmission for 28 days.

The Health Ministry analysis says there is a 50 percent chance that the virus will be eliminated by the end of the month.

Baker said that although there have been no unrelated cases outside of Auckland, there is still a risk that people traveling from Super City have spread it.

And this could take weeks before it becomes apparent, Baker said.

The continued use of masks would also help the practice to enter society and continue to normalize, he said.

Their preference is for Auckland to move to alert level 1.5 as it exits alert level 2.

“The use of masks is low-tech, so it does not interfere with most normal activities. It is a new behavior that must be properly integrated into the alert level system.”

But Ardern confirmed yesterday that the government is receiving health advice on whether a risk profile should be established for returnees who may need to be screened a third time after emerging from isolation.

The people who were likely “high risk” were those who came from countries where the pandemic was increasing or if they had a positive case on their flight, Ardern said.

“We are constantly using the evidence we build to add to our system and make it as robust as possible.

“This has been identified as a very small possibility, but because we are one of the few countries in the world where we have such a low number of cases, we can identify these problems and act on them.”

It comes as officials are still investigating how a man who completed isolation tested two negative but then tested positive five days later and infected two members of his household.

Ardern said the “most likely scenario” is the mysterious case that caught Covid-19 on its flight from India, as his case has been genomically linked to two others on the same flight. Officials await the results of two other cases.

Bloomfield said other possibilities were that the man caught him while he was in managed isolation in Christchurch, so CCTV footage was being reviewed, or on his charter flights, and passengers near him are being isolated and tested.

Bloomfield praised the man for “doing everything right” by calling Healthline as soon as he felt bad, isolating himself with his family, and getting tested.

“This is exactly the kind of surveillance that will help us stay ahead of the virus and I would like to thank him and his family again for their quick thinking.”

The government also committed $ 27 million to the Covax global vaccine facility that would act as a pre-purchase if any successful candidate.

Ardern said it was one of many irons New Zealand had in the fire to secure a vaccine when one was developed.