Covid 19 coronavirus: experts call for rethinking Auckland’s move to level 2

A day before Auckland comes out of the lockdown, experts are calling for the city’s Covid-19 restrictions to be rethought, as new cases of the virus in the city show no signs of slowing down.

The Ministry of Health reported 13 new cases today, including 11 in the community, the highest number in almost two weeks.

Auckland University professor Shaun Hendy, whose model has guided the government’s response to date, said ministers should reconsider moving Auckland to alert level 2 on Monday, and if the change still continues, employers should keep to workers at home if possible.

“If you can work at home, you should continue to do so for the next several weeks,” he said.

University of Otago professor Michael Baker said Auckland should remain at least a high “level 2.5” with the planned limit of 10 on social gatherings and everyone wearing masks in all indoor spaces outside their homes.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern declined to comment today but is due to confirm alert levels at 1 p.m. tomorrow.

His office said it noted this week that “there was an expectation of additional cases from the group.”

The Health Ministry said that 10 of the 11 new community cases today “are clearly epidemiologically linked to the Auckland group.”

Six cases are associated with Mt Roskill Evangelical Church: four in the same home and two who attended religious services.

Four other cases are contacts of previously reported confirmed cases.

“The remaining person who tested positive for Covid-19 is being interviewed today to determine their possible ties to the group,” the ministry said.

Hendy said it was concerning that some people still presented to health services with symptoms of Covid undetected by teams that are tracking all close contacts of people already known to have the virus.

“That suggests that we are not completely ahead of this group,” he said.

Hendy said at the beginning of the current outbreak that there could be “five to six dozen” people who contracted the virus in the chain of transmission from someone returning to New Zealand from abroad to family in South Auckland, where it was first detected. time on August 11. .

It turns out that more than double that number (135) have been listed as community cases as of 9am today Saturday, and the key link to an original source from abroad has yet to be found.

New daily cases have trended lower on a seven-day moving average basis from a high of 10.6 per day on the week through August 18 to a low of 5.1 per day on the week through the first Tuesday, August 25.

But since then, the seven-day average has climbed back to 5.4 per day for the week through Friday, Aug. 28, a stark contrast to New Zealand’s first experience with the virus when cases spiked sharply to a peak. from about 90 cases per day in early April and then dropped equally dramatically to zero cases most days since mid-May.

Hendy said Auckland’s Level 3 “lockdown lite” was never going to contain the virus as effectively as the full Level 4 national lockdown from late March to early May.

“That’s the tradeoff. If you’re at lower alert levels, those numbers take longer to drop,” he said.

“We know that level 2 is not really designed to contain an outbreak in the community. Level 2 definitely runs the risk of the outbreak starting to grow again.”

Hendy said indoor workplaces were “risky environments, especially if you can’t socially distance yourself in those workplaces, and also just informal interaction.”

He said the reopening of Auckland schools on Monday was “certainly a concern”.

“We need schools to maintain social distancing and to make sure they keep good records of who has been in particular classes,” he said.

When asked if the government should postpone reopening the schools, he said: “I think it’s something we should consider. There are a lot of trade-offs in that decision. Obviously, that puts stress on families if they have to supervise children as well. which I think is about finding a combination of things that maintains level 2 with that reproductive number below 1. “

Baker said the latest cases would have contracted the virus long after the level 3 restrictions were imposed, so “we have to do more, rather than less, to eradicate it.”

“Going down to level 2 on Monday means that we are more likely to start seeing numbers that at least do not decrease. We would have a very long broadcast and there will be some risk that the numbers will start to increase,” he said. .

“Basically, we need to launch something to stop the virus, and from where I sit, the only thing available is mass masking.

“If you have a level 2.5, which sets a meeting size of 10, and if you add masks, it is more effective, so you will have a requirement for mass use of masks in all indoor environments, including public transport and venues. work, schools and social meeting places “.