Covid 19 coronavirus: death toll in the United States: grim prediction few believed

When the coronavirus first appeared in China, few knew how far the deadly infection would spread.

A global pandemic was thought by many to be unfathomable, and as cases increased in each country, various predictions were made.

Usually, you have to listen to experts like Dr. Anthony Fauci.

But even as America’s leading infectious disease expert, his prediction was so bleak it was hard to imagine. Just another flamboyant figure to scare the country.

Right after President Donald Trump said he wanted the United States to “open up and really want to go” by Easter on April 12, Fauci predicted that as many as 200,000 Americans could die from coronavirus and millions would contract the virus.

Trump’s promise alarmed public health experts like Fauci.

At the time, there were 2,400 virus deaths in the US and Trump believed that the outbreak in the country would peak in two weeks.

Eleven days after Fauci made his prediction, when social distancing guidelines appeared to be limiting the spread of the virus, he revised his forecast to say that the 60,000 deaths were more likely.

“… there are some glimmers of hope, particularly when you look at the situation in New York, where the number of hospitalizations, intensive care and intubation requirements over the past few days have leveled off and (are) starting to decline,” he said.

“I don’t want to rush about that, but I think that’s the case.

“I’m always very cautious about jumping the gun and saying, ‘Well we’ve turned the corner.’ But I think we’re really seeing the start of that, which would really be very encouraging. We need it right now.”

At the time, New York, the epicenter of the virus outbreak in the United States, had 150,000 cases.

There are currently more than 453,000 in all of New York State.

When Fauci revealed his revised prediction, a new model was published that projected 60,415 people would die in the US by August 4.

But last month, the United States far exceeded that number.

GRIM PREDICTION COMES TRUE

This month, Fauci’s original prediction has come true. While some global trackers indicate that the United States has just under 200,000 deaths, others show that it has exceeded that number.

And now the focus has shifted to a new, even grimmer figure.

The same projections from the University of Washington now point to 378,321 deaths as of January 1.

That figure was updated on September 18, but on September 5 it reached 410,000.

The latest projections mean 3,268 deaths a day. If mandates are eased, that number shoots up to 8,571 deaths a day on January 1.

The data also shows that if universal masks were introduced, the figure would drop to 1,322.

The university says that wearing face masks can reduce transmission by more than 30 percent.

The university’s IHME model has been cited by the White House Coronavirus Task Force throughout the pandemic.

Earlier this month, it published the first global projections of the Covid-19 pandemic by country.

He said cumulative deaths expected for Jan. 1 totaled 2.8 million, about 1.9 million more than at that time on Sept. 3, through the end of the year. Daily deaths in December could be as high as 30,000.

IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray said the prognoses were “grim.”

“We are facing the prospect of a deadly December, especially in Europe, Central Asia and the United States,” he said.

“But the science is clear and the evidence irrefutable: the use of masks, social distancing and limits to social gatherings are vital to help prevent the transmission of the virus.”

A “worst case” scenario, in which mask use remained at current rates and governments continued to relax social distancing requirements, predicted four million deaths by the end of the year.

He said the spike was partly due to a likely seasonal increase in Covid-19 cases in the Northern Hemisphere.

“People in the Northern Hemisphere should be especially vigilant as winter approaches, as coronavirus, like pneumonia, will be more prevalent in cold climates,” Murray said.

“Looking at the staggering Covid-19 estimates, it’s easy to get lost in the enormity of the numbers. The death toll exceeds the capacity of the world’s 50 largest stadiums, a sobering picture of people who have lost their lives and their livelihoods. “

India would actually have the highest cumulative death total before the US at 659,537. So far, the country has had 86,752 deaths, according to John Hopkins University.

John Hopkins puts the current world total at 959,565.