Covid 19 coronavirus: Auckland lockdown – Jacinda Ardern is ready to confirm level 2 move today; we are ready?

Auckland will come out of the level 3 lockdown at 11:59 pm tonight: Prime Minister Jacinda Arden will hold a press conference today to confirm the move, but experts call for reconsideration as new cases of the virus in the city show no signs of Slowing.

It comes as the Government appears to be expanding its testing network, with an “important message” posted last night on the Government’s official Unite Against Covid-19 Facebook page, encouraging people in west and south Auckland to get tested. .

Ardern will confirm today at 1pm whether Auckland’s Covid-19 restrictions will be relaxed, and the region will move to level 2 tonight as planned. The press conference will be broadcast live on nzherald.co.nz and Newstalk ZB.

The measure, announced last Monday, looks increasingly risky after 13 new cases of Covid were reported yesterday in the city, the highest in almost two weeks.

Auckland University professor Shaun Hendy called on the government to reconsider the planned move towards Covid alert level 2.

University of Otago professor Michael Baker called for a strict “alert level 2.5” with everyone wearing masks in schools, indoor workplaces and other indoor gatherings, as well as the planned maximum of 10 people at meetings in Auckland.

The Health Ministry has reported 135 cases of community transmission since the first four cases in the Auckland group on August 11, including 11 new community cases and two more in quarantine facilities yesterday.

But Ardern’s office played down the fears, saying: “As noted earlier this week, there was an expectation of additional cases from the group.”

Last night, a post on the government’s official Unite Against Covid-19 Facebook page was titled: “Important Message: If you are in South or West Auckland, take a test.”

Furthermore, it read: “If you develop symptoms consistent with Covid-19, get tested. If you are in the south or west of Auckland, or if you are at increased risk of health problems if you have Covid-19 even if you have no symptoms , get tested. “

An administrator response to a question in a post urging testing read: “Widespread testing remains a critical part of eliminating Covid-19 in our communities.”

The combined populations of the west and south of Auckland are estimated at 500,000 people.

The Health Ministry said 10 of the 11 new community cases yesterday were clearly linked to the Auckland group: six associated with Mt Roskill Evangelical Church and another four who were contacts for previously reported cases.

“The remaining person who tested positive for Covid-19 is being interviewed today [Saturday] to determine their possible links to the cluster, “the ministry said.

Hendy, whose model has guided the government’s response to date, said it was concerning that some people still showed up for health services with Covid symptoms undetected by teams that are tracking all close contacts of people who already they are known to have the virus. .

“That suggests that we are not completely ahead of this group,” he said.

New daily cases trended lower based on a seven-day moving average from a high of 10.6 per day on the week through August 18 to a low of 5.1 per day on the week through the latest Tuesday, August 25.

But since then, the seven-day average has climbed back to 5.4 per day for the week through Friday, Aug. 28, a stark contrast to New Zealand’s first experience with the virus when cases spiked sharply to a peak. from about 90 cases per day in early April and then dropped equally dramatically to zero cases most days since mid-May.

Hendy said Auckland’s Level 3 “lockdown lite” was never going to contain the virus as effectively as the full Level 4 national lockdown from late March to early May.

“That’s the tradeoff. If you’re at lower alert levels, those numbers take longer to drop,” he said.

“We know that level 2 is not really designed to contain an outbreak in the community. Level 2 definitely runs the risk of the outbreak starting to grow again.”

Hendy said ministers should reconsider moving Auckland to alert level 2 on Monday, and if the change still takes place, employers should keep workers at home if possible.

“If you can work at home, you should continue to do so for the next several weeks,” he said.

He said the reopening of Auckland schools on Monday was “certainly a concern”.

“We need schools to maintain social distancing and to make sure they keep good records of who has been in particular classes,” he said.

When asked if schools should be closed longer, he said: “I think it’s something we should consider. There are a lot of trade-offs in that decision. Obviously, that puts stress on families if they have to supervise children, so I think it’s about finding a combination of things that keeps level 2 with that reproductive number below 1. “

Baker said the latest cases would have contracted the virus after Level 3 restrictions were imposed, so “we have to do more, rather than less, to eradicate it.”

“Going down to level 2 on Monday means that we are more likely to start seeing numbers that at least do not decrease. We would have a very long broadcast and there will be some risk that the numbers will start to increase,” he said. .

“Basically, we need to launch something to stop the virus, and from where I sit, the only thing available is mass masking.

“If you have a level 2.5, which sets a meeting size of 10, and if you add masks, it is more effective, so you will have a requirement for mass use of masks in all indoor environments, including public transport and venues. work, schools and social meeting places “.

A former public health director, Dr. Collin Tukuitonga, said he supported wearing masks and limiting meetings, but Ardern would have to make a call after today’s numbers are available.

“If we say we have 12, and we can connect them all to the existing pool, I would be calm about going to level 2 with those other measures,” he said.

“However, let’s say there are 12 and two that we cannot link to the original church or group, I would question the wisdom of going down to level 2, because that tells me that there are other sources in the community that I don’t know.”