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ANALYSIS: Air New Zealand CEO has gone where most business leaders have strayed. Greg Foran has questioned whether New Zealand’s elimination approach will work in the long run.
In a fascinating interview with the Sydney morning heraldForan said: “Elimination, which is something worth pursuing, is probably not sustainable based on what we are learning now, which is that the vaccine will not be 100% effective, not everyone will take it, and it will take years to distribute.”
New Zealand initially aimed to “flatten the curve” of Covid-19 cases. After spectacular success, the strategy turned into elimination, where the goal is for the country to live without the virus.
While the elimination has undoubted benefits, in the long term it could make opening the border very difficult.
KIRK HARGREAVES / Stuff
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has said she wants Australia to be free of community transmission for 28 days before considering a quarantine-free travel bubble with Australia.
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Foran told the Sydney morning herald that after a successful vaccine is found, it will only be, perhaps, 50 percent effective and will take years to distribute worldwide.
“In the United States … they recently did a survey there and only half of the people said they would get vaccinated,” he says. “And then of course we have reinfection rates.”
In other words, Foran believes that it will be years before a solution arrives and if New Zealand maintains a zero tolerance approach to the virus with closed borders, we will be left behind.
Foran makes an interesting point. Victoria’s prime minister has said the state may never get rid of the virus, and Sydney has had a small number of cases in the community – unblocked – for months.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has said she wants Australia to be free from community transmission for 28 days before she considers a quarantine-free travel bubble with Australia. Actually, that may not happen.
Air New Zealand CEO Greg Foran is concerned that his international business will be established effectively for years to come.
The world is beginning to learn to live with Covid-19. Earlier I said that we could see three types of countries emerge in a new normal Covid-19:
1) covid free countries
2) Countries with a small number of cases, where outbreaks are tolerated and managed
3) Countries that have uncontained outbreaks
The New Zealand target is directly the first option; very few countries are following a similar phase-out strategy. Most seem to aim for option two.
You can see the potential for extensive international air travel between these low-disease “option two” countries, where systems have been developed to track and contain any outbreaks. In other words, it is accepted that the virus could be imported, but it would be tolerated and managed.
In this scenario, you can potentially see travel bubbles between Australia and places like Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Singapore next year.
Rapid tests are likely to be widely used. It won’t be perfect, but with a low-tolerance approach, the odd case of slipping wouldn’t be disastrous.
On the other hand, New Zealand has zero tolerance for any cases that arise in the community, making it much more difficult for Air New Zealand to establish unquarantine passenger links with most countries, in addition to countries like our free Pacific. of Covid-19. neighbors.
Foran is concerned that his international business will establish itself effectively for years to come, or even longer. Undoubtedly, he is also concerned about the impact that isolation will have on the country.
Foran says “the answer is a degree of restraint, I think, and those countries … that go beyond that will probably end up in a better position.”
Many tend to view our Covid-19 response in a binary way; it is “Covid-19 free” or “lets the virus in” like Sweden. While an eventual solution for New Zealand will likely have many more nuances. We are recognized for our innovative thinking; it’s time to apply that to a long-term strategy to open the border. Because a vaccine is not guaranteed. And even if one comes along, getting the world vaccinated will be years from now.
