[ad_1]
The “yellow flag” Covid-19 case with no known epidemiological link to the Auckland group may be cause for concern, says a public health expert.
The mysterious case, which presented itself at Auckland’s North Shore Hospital on August 25 and remains in critical condition in the ICU, was not on the Ministry of Health’s radar before.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern explained on Friday afternoon that the case was identified before the city went to alert level 2.5 and is the only unrelated case that has been identified lately.
LAWRENCE SMITH / Things
The Government will keep New Zealand at alert level 2 and Auckland at alert level 2.5 for at least another week and a half.
“This is a case that, while it has been genomically linked, we have not been able to determine the person-to-person link with our group,” Ardern said.
READ MORE:
* Coronavirus: the government will keep alert levels the same until mid-September
* Coronavirus: The number of deaths from elderly care in Victoria soars as the state records 81 new cases
* Business owners could be frustrated with the uncertainty of Covid, says the executive director of the Southland Chamber of Commerce
* Coronavirus: ‘Still intending’ to find the mysterious source of Auckland’s Covid-19 cluster
“That means there could be other people we are missing.”
When the case was announced on Aug. 26, the chief health officer said that identifying a case only when they show up at the hospital is a “little yellow flag,” as it means they were likely infected for a few days.
Public health expert Professor Michael Baker from the University of Otago said these undetected cases in the community have the potential to cause further spread and extend the size and duration of the outbreak.
Supplied
Professor Michael Baker suspects that secondary infections could still be incubated and hidden.
“There are always the cases you know about and the cases you don’t know about,” Baker said. Stuff.
“In general, it assumes that there is a series of undetected cases for every case that it knows about.”
So far, 152 cases have been linked to the group, 72 are still active and one has died.
Elimination can only be achieved if these cases die out, however some will die out on their own. Usually one case will infect two or three other people, but that’s not always the case, as some will not lead to secondary infections, Baker said.
The lack of an epidemiological link was more of a red flag than a yellow flag for Baker.
“It’s just a little reminder that there are invisible cases.”
The benefits of Auckland’s alert level 3 have yet to emerge, however it will be reassuring if no new unrelated cases are found and testing rates remain high over the next month. Baker said this would be an ideal situation.
“A couple of weeks of high volume testing with no cases outside the cluster will be a pretty good result.”
On Thursday 9,909 tests were processed, bringing the national total to 797,990. Testing rates in Auckland appear to be declining: Between Aug. 13-19, 19,179 people were tested in the region, the following week that number dropped to 6,284.
Testing rates will continue to rise in Auckland and the country over the next several weeks, with a focus on people who had contact with Auckland residents, Health Director-General Ashley Bloomfield said on Friday.
Both symptomatic people and specific groups of asymptomatic people, those in the hospitality, tourism and travel industries, will be tested to ensure there is no spread outside Auckland.
Monique Ford / Stuff
Chief Health Officer Ashley Bloomfield says testing rates will increase in Auckland in the coming weeks.
There is a possibility that secondary infections from the “yellow flag” case are still incubating.
“If they had infected other contacts, it is possible that those people are still incubating the disease and some of them will not have any symptoms,” Baker explained.
“You could have a chain of transmission that could last two or three generations before you know it.”
Ardern pointed out that the epidemiological mystery does not mean the outbreak cannot be contained, but it is a reason to be cautious, hence the continued restrictions.
Previously, they had been able to narrow down groups while the cases were still under investigation.
“It gives reason to be cautious and that is why things like wearing masks are so important, that they pile up restrictions and keep the restrictions where they are because those are the things that really tell us to be … careful,” Ardern said. .
The mini group linked to the Mt Roskill Evangelical Fellowship church also has a genomic link but not an epidemiological link to the initial group. Bloomfield said Friday that they are hopeful this subgroup is well contained, but more research is underway to find missing links in the transmission chain.
1 NEWS
Ardern said the kiwis who turned away from each other wouldn’t have made her proud before, but now they do.
He said they were not looking for undetected cases linked to this subgroup, but rather working to get more information from the identified cases to find the “missing pieces of the puzzle.”
The original source of infection for the index case identified on August 12 also remains a mystery.
The alert levels will be reviewed by the Cabinet on Monday, September 14. If a decision is made to lower alert levels, the changes will take effect at 11:59 pm on Wednesday, September 16.
Baker was concerned that slightly lower alert levels could cause cases to escalate again if transmission currents were not completely extinguished at the lockdown.
“That is the big concern,” he said.
However, the combined methods of contact tracing, testing, isolation, hand washing, and mask use, as well as mass collection limitations, could be enough to halt the advance of partially extinguished chains.
The Ministry of Health was contacted for comment.
