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OPINION: Today, sometime after 10:30 a.m., Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and her cabinet will make their career decisions.
At 4 p.m., we will know the answer to his lengthy deliberation and whether or not the country will loosen its rigid level 4 blockade rules and go to level 3 alert a little less punitive.
It is not an easy choice. Lifting the early block runs the risk of undoing the remarkable curve flattening achieved to date.
HAGEN HOPKINS / GETTY IMAGES
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern will decide today whether to lift the blockade measures.
We would have to go back to level 4 or face some of the worst scenarios that were presented to the government last month, with models showing deaths of between 8,560 and 27,600 depending on how things played out.
But every unnecessary day in closing is a lost job and a destroyed business.
While the government says level 3 is not that different from level 4 in terms of what people can do, there will be no hugs, dinners at restaurants, or picnics in the park, the difference between levels 3 and 4 is big for the economy.
The Treasury believes that level 4 reduces economic output by a punitive 40%, while level 3 reaches output by a comparatively modest 25%.
The decision is not direct between the economy and people’s health: Covid-19 is not the only thing that kills people after all; An economy reduced to just over two thirds of its current size, the worst case scenario today, will not pay for good health care.
And an underperforming economy can be deadly. Unemployed people are two to three times more likely to die from suicide, and poverty tends to correlate with generally poorer health.
The choice is not necessarily between health and the economy: it is the path that keeps people happier and healthier and solving that is not an easy task.
The government is likely predisposed to extend the blockade even for a short period of time and perhaps only in specific parts of the country.
Treasury advice and comments from major banks say going back to level 4 after leaving for the first time is worse for the economy than staying longer in the first place.
Ardern said he will assess the economic impact of his decision, but decision-making appears to be stacked in favor of the advice of health officials, rather than economists.
Director-General for Health Ashley Bloomfield will attend the cabinet meeting, which is highly unusual, as the meetings are, with very rare exceptions, exclusive to government ministers.
His advice will form the backbone of the decision, with Ardern saying Sunday that he wants Bloomfield to be satisfied with the available data and the country’s contact-tracking ability before considering movement levels.
But despite the government’s desire to make a decision based on the advice of scientists and bureaucrats, the choice ultimately falls to the Cabinet with all its concomitant policy.
The monopoly of work in the crucial Health, Civil Defense and Finance portfolios gives a little weight to the party’s position. NZ First’s position has been more difficult to determine.
The party has been sending mixed messages, at the same time sounding the economic alarm, while elsewhere attacking journalists who deign to write the party is frustrated with the way health officials allegedly captured the ministers of Job.
The Green Party’s concerns are not a starter. Although he is a supporter of the Government, his ministers are not in the Cabinet and have no influence on his closure decisions, as a consequence of the party’s trust and supply agreement.
Politicians, of course, will be watching the polls. Public support for the blockade so far has been high, and leaked internal polls put ruling parties at dictatorial levels of polarity.
But this alone will not alleviate political fears. The day of the vote remains September 19. That’s just two days after Stats NZ will release economic data for the current quarter.
It will probably show the most severe economic contraction in modern times, showing a severe contraction in the economy.
Voters can thank the government for leading them through the disaster, but there is no guarantee that they want the same team in charge on the day of the vote, after all Britons unceremoniously ousted Winston Churchill before World War II It will even end.
The government’s line is that public health and the economy are one and the same thing. A protracted public health crisis with the country moving in and out of the blockade forever will be bad for business.
The emerging consensus of health experts and economists is a little longer on the blockade that could make the difference between elimination and a prolonged outbreak and its attendant economic consequences.
But, unfortunately for the government, that decision comes with financial pain of its own, and possibly very little reward will come on voting day.
