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More than half a million people in the United States could die from COVID-19 by the end of February next year, but about 130,000 of those lives could be saved if everyone wore masks, according to estimates from a modeling study.
Estimates, from a study by researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, show that with few effective treatment options for COVID-19 and still no vaccines available, the U.S. challenge during winter. “
“We are heading for a substantial fall / winter increase,” said IHME Director Chris Murray, who co-led the research.
He said the projections, as well as current real-life evidence of rising infection and death rates, showed that there is no basis for “the idea that the pandemic is going away,” adding: “We don’t think that’s the case. true”.
Kiwi epidemiologist Michael Baker says the research presents a “grim picture.”
“Unless strong measures are taken, the total burden of deaths will be around half a million by February 2021.”
Modeling has played an important role in New Zealand’s response, including when to move alert levels. The US response has been largely decentralized, with little coordination between states, and President Donald Trump has repeatedly spread misinformation about the virus.
