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The government would be playing “Russian Roulette” with Kiwi lives if it got out of the running of the bulls without increasing its job of searching for contacts, says an expert.
University of Otago epidemiologist David Skegg told the Epidemic Response selection committee that the country needed to be able to trace all contacts of any known cases within two to three days, as Australia has done.
But he cautioned against too many comparisons to Australia, which have seemingly similar case numbers while under much less stringent lockdown.
The government is expected to make a decision next Monday on whether to extend or end the level 4 blockade at the end of its initial four-week execution on April 22.
Skegg said it was key that if the blockade was lifted, New Zealand had high evidence rates and fast contact tracking of any known cases.
“As soon as the blockade is lifted, the epidemic will take off again unless we have the other measures in place,” Skegg said.
Mark Metcalfe
A runner runs along Bondi Beach in Australia during closing.
Skegg was also interested in seeing “surveillance tests” in operation, something the government has been talking about for weeks, but has not yet formally started.
“If the answer to those questions is ‘no,’ I would say that we are asking the Cabinet to play Russian roulette for the health of New Zealanders,” Skegg said.
Skegg was speaking after a briefing by Australia’s medical director, Professor Brendan Murphy, who detailed the rapid contact-finding work Australia was able to do.
Several national MPs on the committee noted that Australia had a new case rate seemingly similar to New Zealand despite a much more relaxed shutdown, with many companies open.
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Dr. David Skegg, author of People’s Health.
Skegg cautioned against reading too much about this, saying Australia’s situation was “a bit puzzling” and that they had much worse hospitalization rates than New Zealand, suggesting that there were more viruses in the community than appeared in the evidence.
“If you look at hospitalizations, Australia has 378 people in the hospital with Covid-19. We have 15.”
He said that even after adjusting to the population, Australia had five times as many people in the hospital.
New Zealand was also being more ambitious than Australia, Skegg said, pointing to a case rate low enough that the shutdown can be completed after a single month, rather than the many months expected in Australia.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said she agreed with Skegg that the tracking of New Zealand contacts had to be “insurmountable” and that it would intensify.
Earlier on the select committee, Director-General for Health Ashley Bloomfield had been unable to say exactly how quickly all contact tracking could be accomplished for each case.
The Government has asked Dr. Ayesha Verrall to review her contact locating practices.
