Cannabis referendum in 2020 elections: outcome depends on youth participation, says researcher

By RNZ

Young voters will be key in deciding whether to vote “yes” for the cannabis referendum, believes one pollster.

The latest Research New Zealand poll set out to measure how New Zealanders plan to vote in the upcoming referendum on cannabis that could result in the legal sale of the drug with government controls.

Research NZ managing partner Emanuel Kalafatelis, who has been conducting regular polls on the subject this year, told Sunday Morning that he had felt that a positive result was “a lost cause” but was now reviewing that opinion.

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The latest results showed that nearly half of those surveyed (46 percent) now say they will vote in favor of legalizing recreational cannabis, compared to 40 percent who do not.

The balance is undecided or prefers not to say so, although that number has dropped from 25 percent earlier in the year.

“The reason we see support increasing now is that the number of people sitting on the fence is decreasing,” Kalafatelis said.

That could be attributed to increased media coverage, as well as publicity both for and against legalization.

Those most in favor are on the younger end of the age spectrum, those who are not in favor are on the older end.

“It will come down to getting younger voters, who traditionally don’t vote in general elections, go to the polls and vote because they are the people who support the legislation the most compared to older voters.

“If they don’t show up, then this is not going to cross the line.”

As of Friday, 75 percent of 18-25-year-olds were registered, compared with 71 percent overall in previous elections.

Participants were asked about the reasons for their opinion.

At least half of those who supported legalization said the taxes collected from legal sales could be spent on health and drug education, and they also believed it would free up the police to focus on other crimes.

The opponents’ reasons include that smoking is bad for health, cannabis is a gateway drug, and they had general concerns about the health and safety of users.

There are also concerns about the impact of cannabis use on the mental health of young people, as well as concerns that people may drive “high.”

Recreational and medical use was considered the same by many who will vote against.

For those who are in favor, 25% are strongly in favor and 21% somewhat in favor. Of those who oppose it, 32% strongly oppose it.

“We don’t see the same level of conviction for the legislation as we do against the legislation,” Kalafatelis said.