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OPINION: If you thought the pressure on All Blacks coach Ian Foster was hot now, imagine how intense it will be if his team loses a third straight game on Saturday night.
At least he would have no choice but to lock himself in a hotel room for two weeks upon his return.
It seems unfathomable, but the All Blacks are about to lose three straight games for the first time since 1998.
There is sure to be a lot to discuss at the rugby roundtable, like ThingsThe oval ball scribes tackle the hot topics ahead of the All Blacks’ Three Nations clash with Argentina in Newcastle.
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1. What would a third loss in a row mean for All Blacks coach Ian Foster?
Richard Knowler: A loss could get him cut off. Seriously. Every Blacks fan can tie a Wallabies team, even a decidedly average one, but back-to-back losses to Argentina? You’re laughing. It is not good enough. NZ Rugby would be forced to act, and quickly. Foster may have a hard time surviving with only 33 percent success.
Marc Hinton: It would lead him to the precipice of becoming the first All Blacks coach in the modern era to be fired after just one term. You want to see him have a chance to grow and learn from his mistakes, and you also understand that players must take a lot of the blame for this. But a two-win comeback from six games would increase the pressure to almost breaking point. One of the reasons the All Blacks should be very motivated on Saturday. Unless …
Robert van Royen: The hot seat would become almost unbearable, but the NZR board is unlikely to cut ties with him in the middle of his two-year contract. Speaking of Foster’s contract, it sure seems like a wise move not to have offered him a four-year deal from the start.
Paul Cully: A long, unhappy summer in which you should probably avoid the Canterbury region, lest some joker mention the name Scott Robertson. But even with three losses in a row (which won’t happen, by the way), Foster should receive until the end of 2021 to turn the All Blacks’ fortunes around. It would set a terrible precedent if New Zealand Rugby went into the business of “firing the coach” after every losing streak of results.
2. Should Jordie Barrett stay on the right wing or is it time for a change?
Knowledgest: Time to give Sevu Reece a spin; His acceleration, or kick and chase tactic, within a small patch of terrain can be deadly.
Hinton: No no no. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see his name still there. This has been a poor selection from minute one, and I haven’t seen anything change the way I think about it. One of Foster’s blind spots, for sure. Barrett’s younger brother should start at fullback. Or be in the bank. Sevu Reece deserves a chance on the right wing. Or Will Jordan, if he was fit. Playing with guys out of position has never worked well in ABs.
Van Royen: Absolutely not. Unleash Will Jordan (if he fits), who had his debut interrupted in the final Bledisloe Cup match due to a blow to the head. To think that he hasn’t really played since the second week of the 10 Miter Cup on September 18.
Boy: No. In the space of five rounds, Super Rugby Aotearoa’s best fullback has become a blunt weapon, with little form and possibly confidence. If Will Jordan is over your head, hit, pick him. If not, choose Sevu Reece. How can anyone look closely at Barrett’s test performances this year and say, “This positional shift has paid off”?
3. What specific area of the game do the All Blacks most need to patch?
Knowledgest: This is no place for a tirade. Start with the basics. Accurate passes. Catching the ball. Direct throws to the lineout. Everything cost the All Blacks against the Argies in Sydney
Hinton: Decision making. This is what it all boils down to. Make the right decisions under pressure. So many aimless kicks the last couple of times, and it cost them dearly. Kicks must be contestable or space. Don’t kick the ball if your partner is in a bad position. Recycle and build pressure. Discipline executes it in a close second, for me.
Van Royen: Discipline. Nicolás Sánchez has scored all the points in the two Tri-Nations matches of the Pumas. There are 40 points, 33 of them through penalty goals. Get them working for their points and good things will happen. After all, his attack isn’t exactly lightning.
Boy: Not much of Sydney’s test against the Wallabies. So everything is there, but somehow they have to get in the right emotional state for one last test before heading back to Aotearoa. Many of his flaws in the losses to the Wallabies and Pumas can be traced back to mental fatigue.
4. Defeated like a pack once more a fortnight ago, who is the All Blacks striker who has disappointed you the most and needs to improve his game?
Knowledgest: Is Shannon Frizell the answer in number 6? We don’t expect it to be another Jerome Kaino or even a Liam Squire, but Frizell should offer more in terms of physicality. Akira Ioane could be an option to start in Newcastle. Or transfer Ardie Savea to the flank of the blind side, to bring a bigger ball runner in Hoskins Sotutu to number 8.
Hinton: Shannon Frizell has missed a golden opportunity to establish herself in the loose trio, and will probably miss this final test. But Patrick Tuipulotu has clearly failed to deliver the form, presence and impact that we saw at Super Rugby Aotearoa. Maybe he’s tired. Worn out. But with Brodie Retallick back next year, he needs a statement to be shown.
Van Royen: Patrick Tuipulotu needs to put to use his 1.98m high and 120kg frame, the one he used so effectively during Super Rugby Aotearoa. Even if it’s from the bench, it might as well be Scott Barrett’s chance to start alongside Sam Whitelock this week.
Boy: It’s not fair to pick individuals, but it’s pretty obvious, and has been for a while, that All Blacks aren’t overly blessed with accessories right now. Guys like England’s Kyle Sinckler and Mako Vunipola, and to some extent Taniela Tupou, are on a different level in both set pieces and open play.
5. Who wins on Saturday and by how much?
Knowledgest: The All Blacks, surely. We would take a margin of 1 point right now.
Hinton: The All Blacks, because any other result is unthinkable. And if they are motivated, focused, and playing a little angry, then they should win 15-20. Clearly, they have taken their foot off the pedal after Sydney. Needs to come back this week.
Van Royen: The All Blacks by 14.
Boy: The All Blacks will win, because the Pumas will be forced to make some changes this weekend (due to injuries / player handling) and will be a little more disjointed than in Sydney. My crystal ball points to a 12 point win, although the previous one had to be thrown out the window after telling me the All Blacks would beat the Pumas last time.