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Just a week before the deadline, Britain and the European Union reached a free trade agreement on Thursday (early Christmas Day, NZT) that should avoid economic chaos on New Years and provide some certainty to businesses after years of Brexit turmoil.
Once ratified by both parties, the deal will ensure that Britain and the 27-nation bloc can continue to trade goods without tariffs or quotas after the UK fully liberates itself from the EU on January 1.
The relief was palpable around nine months of tense and often irritated negotiations that had finally produced a positive outcome.
The Christmas Eve breakthrough was doubly welcomed amid a coronavirus pandemic that has left some 70,000 people dead in Britain and prompted the country’s neighbors to close their borders to the UK due to a seemingly more new variant. contagious virus that spreads in England.
“We have regained control of our laws and our destiny,” declared British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who posted a photo of himself on social media, smiling with his thumb up.
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The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that “it was a long and winding road, but we have a lot to show.”
“It is fair, it is a balanced agreement, and it is the right and responsible thing for both parties,” he said in Brussels.
All 27 EU countries and the British and European parliaments have yet to vote on the deal, though the European body’s action may not happen until after the January 1 breakup. The British Parliament is scheduled to vote on December 30.
France, long regarded as Britain’s most difficult obstacle to a deal, said the staggering steadfastness among the 27 nations with widely diverse interests was a triumph in itself.
“European unity and steadfastness paid off,” French President Emmanuel Macron said in a statement.
And German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that unity now will likely result in all EU nations supporting the deal: “I am very optimistic that we can present a good result here.”
However, it was not all good news at the national level for the British prime minister.
Criticism of the interim agreement is already emerging, with Scotland’s Prime Minister calling the agreement “disastrous” for her country’s farmers.
“It is time to chart our own future as an independent European nation,” Sturgeon wrote on Twitter.
Sir Keir Starmer, leader of the British Labor Party, said he would reluctantly support the deal.
“Against no agreement, we accept this agreement, but the consequences are yours and yours alone,” warned Johnson.
It has been four and a half years since the British voted between 52% and 48% to leave the EU and, in the words of the Brexiteers campaign slogan, ‘regain control’ of the UK’s borders and laws .
More than three years of discussions passed before Britain abandoned the bloc’s political structures last January. Unraveling the economies of the two sides and reconciling Britain’s desire for independence with the EU’s goal of preserving its unity took more months.
The devil will be in the details of the 2,000-page agreement, but both parties claimed that the agreement protects their cherished goals. Britain said it gives the UK control over its money, borders, laws and fishing waters and ensures that the country “is no longer in the lunar attraction of the EU.”
Von der Leyen said it protects the EU’s single market and contains safeguards to ensure Britain does not unfairly undermine the bloc’s standards.
If Britain left the EU without an agreement governing trade, the two sides would reinstate tariffs on each other’s products.
The Johnson government recognized that a chaotic no-deal exit, or a “collapse,” as the British call it, would likely bring stagnation in the country’s ports, temporary shortages of some goods, and price increases for staple foods. The turmoil could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
To avoid that, the alternating negotiating sessions between London and Brussels, and sometimes interrupted by the pandemic, gradually narrowed the differences between the two parties to three key issues: fair competition rules, mechanisms to resolve future disputes and fishing rights.
The EU has long feared that Britain would cut social, environmental and state aid rules after Brexit and gain a competitive advantage over the EU. Britain denies it plans to institute weaker standards, but said having to follow EU regulations would undermine its sovereignty.
Finally, a compromise was reached on the sensitive issues of “level playing field”. That left the economically minor but hugely symbolic problem of fishing rights as the last stumbling block, with EU maritime nations seeking to retain access to UK waters where they have long fished and Britain insists they must. exercise control as an “independent coastal state”.
Under the agreement, the EU waives a quarter of the quota it catches in UK waters, much less than the 80 percent that Britain initially demanded. The system will be in effect for five and a half years, after which the quotas will be re-evaluated.
The UK has remained part of the EU single market and customs union during the 11-month transition period after Brexit. As a result, many people have so far noticed little impact from Brexit.
On January 1, the breakup will start to feel real. Even with a trade agreement, goods and people will no longer be able to move freely between the UK and its mainland neighbors without border restrictions.
EU citizens will no longer be able to live and work in Britain without visas, although that does not apply to the 4 million who already do, and British people can no longer automatically work or retire in EU nations. Exporters and importers face customs declarations, merchandise controls, and other obstacles.
The UK-EU border is already recovering from new restrictions imposed on travelers from Britain to France and other European countries due to the new version of the coronavirus spreading across London and southern England.
Thousands of trucks were stuck in traffic jams near the port of Dover on Wednesday, waiting for their drivers to be tested for viruses so they could enter the Eurotunnel into France.
UK supermarkets said the backlog will take days to clear and there could be a shortage of some fresh produce during the Christmas season.
Despite the agreement, there are still unanswered questions on large areas, including security cooperation between the UK and the bloc, with the UK on the verge of losing access to real-time information in some police databases from the EU, and access to the EU market for Britain’s huge financial services sector.
Von der Leyen said he felt “quiet satisfaction”, but not joy, now that the torrid Brexit saga that has consumed Britain and the EU for years is finally almost over.
“I know this is a difficult day for some, and to our friends in the UK I want to say goodbye is such a sweet pain,” he said.
Johnson, who bet his career and reputation on taking the country out of the EU, said the UK will always be a great friend and partner of the bloc.
“Although we have left the EU, this country will continue to be culturally, emotionally, historically, strategically and geologically united to Europe,” he said.