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MetService warns that travel disruptions are likely this weekend, as heavy gales, heavy rain and large waves hit the country, followed by cold air from Antarctica bringing snow to low levels in the Deep South. .
Snow is expected to be a challenge for cattle on the South Island early next week.
A fast low expected to pass through the bottom of the South Island early Sunday would be the lowest in New Zealand “for a long time,” said MetService meteorologist Tom Adams.
It would contribute to an unusually large pressure difference between Auckland and Invercargill, bringing gales to many parts of the country, including areas that do not typically see strong winds.
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“This is a general severe climate. Severe localized weather has occurred many times in recent years, but has rarely affected the country as much as is forecast for this weekend, “said Adams.
EMMA DANGERFIELD / things
The wind capsized this springboard in Rangiora last week, and MetService is warning of the risk of strong gales for most of New Zealand this weekend.
He and his colleagues were “carefully studying their pressure charts in anticipation of one of the most widespread severe weather events of this year.”
While the rain would be heavy in several places, especially along the west of the South Island, it was the wind that had the highest risk of causing widespread disruption over the weekend.
The strip of rain would be short-lived for many northern and eastern locations, and the winds would begin to abate on Monday, but the sting in the tail would be cold Antarctic air carried into the country, Adams said.
“This will bring snow to low levels in the extreme south, and most alpine passes are expected to see snow. Even for the North Island, we are currently forecasting a spring recharge for Ruapehu and the possibility of snow on Desert Road, ”said Adams.
“Also, a surge from the south brings the risk of coastal flooding to coastal areas on both sides of the country.”
The low pressure system was being deepened by a strong jet stream, and was expected to be around 970 hPa when it passed the bottom of the South Island early Sunday.
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A caravan was destroyed north of Dunedin last week after winds brought it down.
The models were choosing a pressure difference between Auckland and Invercargill of more than 35 hPa at the time, Adams said. It would be the first time since November 2018 that the difference had been more than 33hPa.
MetService meteorologist Lewis Ferris said former Tropical Cyclone Uesi, which hit New Zealand in mid-February 2020, had been as deep as this weekend’s low was expected to be, but Uesi only had impacts located.
“This weekend we are talking about severe general weather,” Ferris said.
The strong winds were the result of the difference in pressure between the minimum and the maximum in northeast New Zealand, which was expected to be around 1024hPa by the end of Saturday.
Rachael Kelly / Stuff
Snow fell to low levels in Southland in early February, and could be repeated near the end of the month.
“That is why we are seeing such a large pressure gradient between Invercargill and Auckland.
“It’s like a triple threat situation. Before the rain starts, we will have stronger and stronger northerly winds, which will basically bring gales across New Zealand. “
The west of the South Island seemed likely to see the brunt of the rain, which was only expected to be strong for a brief time in the north of the North Island. The rain will be followed by colds from the south bringing low-level snow to places like Southland, Ferris said.
“Basically the entire country is covered by the possibility of strong gales and heavy rains.”
