As the number of viruses increases, governments are charting the way out of the blockade

As the world approaches 2.5 million coronavirus cases, some regions have reached the peak of the virus, and the number of new cases and deaths is slowing.

This includes New York, the epicenter of the pandemic in the United States. So far it has had almost 15,000 deaths, but is seeing fewer deaths each day. Meanwhile, the number of cases in Europe has exceeded one million, and the virus has claimed more than 100,000 lives so far. But the numbers are now decreasing.

In many regions, it is too early to lift blocking restrictions, but planning for this is underway. Over the past week at The Conversation, experts from around the world have provided advice to governments based on local trends, threats and available resources.

The situation is different for each region, but most experts agree that any output should be a phased response, with a strong focus on testing and follow-up to avoid a second wave of infection.

This is our weekly summary of expert information on the Coronavirus.

The Conversation, a nonprofit group, works with a wide range of academics in its global network. Together we produce evidence-based analysis and ideas from across the academy. Articles are free to read (no paywall) and republication.

This seventh weekly column from our team of international health editors highlights some of the recently published articles from The Conversation’s global network.

Exit strategy considerations

Some countries appear to have peaked in their coronavirus cases, but before easing restrictions, it is important to ensure that it is not just a temporary suppression of cases.

Here’s what governments need to consider when planning their exit strategies:

• Do not rush. Without a vaccine or effective treatments, relaxing the blockage too early could lead to a second wave of infections. As UCL’s Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths notes, in some past pandemics, the second wave has killed more people than the first.

• Learn from other countries. Instead of a complete closure, South Korea implemented border closings, wide social distancing and focused on testing and tracking contacts, explains Alex van den Heever and colleagues at the University of the Witwatersrand in South Africa. This allowed him to keep a larger proportion of his economy open.

• Find out who has immunity. Eric Muraille and his colleagues (in French) from the Free University of Brussels can gradually and carefully reopen the economy to see who has been infected in the past and developed immunity. They say that people with immunity could return to work, minimizing the risk of additional waves, while others stay home.

• Adapt the answer. New Zealand has one of the strictest blocking measures and will reduce these restrictions from April 28. This will strike the right balance between protecting people’s health and livelihoods, writes Martin Berka of Massey University.

One step forward, two steps back

Donald Trump recently stopped US funding for the World Health Organization, accusing him of “mishandling and covering up the spread” of the virus.

Adam Kamradt-Scott of the University of Sydney warns that such cuts could bankrupt WHO in the midst of a pandemic. This would mean having to lay off staff and being less able to assist efforts in low- and middle-income countries.

How have countries responded so far?

We hear a lot about the coronavirus response in the UK, the United States, China, and parts of Europe. But what is the situation in other parts of the world?

• Ask for help in Indonesia. The coronavirus has hit Indonesia hard: it now has the highest death toll in Southeast Asia. China is committed to helping Indonesia, but to make a real difference, this should also include sending experienced medical personnel and testing technology, argues Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat of Universitas Islam Indonesia.

• Some surprises in Greece. Greece appears to have been mildly affected by the coronavirus, with just over 100 deaths so far, despite emerging from a ten-year financial crisis. Stella Ladi of Queen Mary University of London explains that the country learned from the financial crisis and acted quickly to close schools, ban public gatherings and ensure consistent messages.

• Financial restrictions in Cuba. Cuba’s success in keeping case numbers at just over 1,000 so far can be attributed to its comprehensive planning, rapid response, and ability to scale up measures as needed. But what happens next depends on your access to the test kits, write Emily Morris and Ilan Kelman of UCL.

• Wellness Buffer in Mauritius. The small island of Mauritius has been under curfew since March 24 and the impact of the coronavirus has devastated its economy. But with a strong social welfare system, it is addressing the epidemic with a stronger foundation than many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, argues Myriam Blin of the Charles Telfair Campus in Mauritius.

What is the most recent evidence on COVID-19 and pets?

• Pets are vulnerable in other ways, too. More people are adopting pets to keep them company while isolated. But these pets are at risk of being abandoned after the locks are alleviated and the owners either no longer want or can afford to keep them, writes Heather Fraser of Queensland University of Technology in Australia and her colleagues.

History lessons.

• On conspiracy theories. Despite the fact that science offers more answers about the coronavirus every day, conspiracy theories abound. Humans have always found explanations for the unknown, writes Hanna Tervanotko of McMaster University in Canada, and we can see how the ancient Israelites dealt with epidemics to help understand why.

• Learning from mistakes. The course of human history has been shaped by infectious diseases, and the current crisis will certainly not be the last time. David Griffin of the Doherty Institute and Justin Denholm of Melbourne Health in Australia describe what we have learned from past pandemics.

• How socioeconomic status affects your risk of coronavirus. In this pandemic, the poor group together into small houses and are forced to keep showing up to work, while the wealthy work remotely and flee to their second homes. This has eerie similarities to how the wealthy reacted during the bubonic plague, explains Kathryn McKinley of the University of Maryland, Baltimore County in the United States.

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