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A huge collision of space junk was avoided after an old Russian satellite and an empty Chinese rocket body crossed shortly before 2 p.m., says space radar operator LeoLabs.
The company tweeted shortly after 3 p.m. that the body of the rocket had passed over its radar station near Naseby in Central Otago still in one piece, with no sign of debris.
There was no information on how close the objects had gotten.
LeoLabs CEO Daniel Ceperly warned Thursday that if the objects collide, they could create tens of thousands of pieces of debris that could litter space for decades, if not centuries.
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California-based LeoLabs estimated Thursday that there was a more than 10 percent chance that the satellite and the rocket body would collide head-on at a combined speed of 53,000 kilometers per hour.
However, an updated forecast on Friday had been more reassuring, suggesting they were very likely to lose each other by at least seven meters when they crossed 991 km over the Antarctic coast at 1.56 p.m.
Some other space watchers expected a safer margin and a lower risk of collision.
LeoLabs CEO Daniel Ceperley had said Stuff that if they did, it would be a “really high consequence” event.
With a combined mass of 2.8 tons, they were “massive satellites,” he said.
If there were a collision, the amount of space debris in low Earth orbit would increase substantially, he said.
“In an instant, there could be 25% more debris in low Earth orbit – you really don’t want that to happen.”
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LeoLabs’ New Zealand radar found a Chinese rocket still in one piece when it passed through New Zealand on Friday afternoon.
The debris could destroy other satellites, potentially causing outages as diverse as broadband, asset tracking and environmental monitoring, it said Thursday.
Any impact would likely be felt over time, rather than immediately, as the debris spread over a period of weeks to form a “debris belt” nearly 1000 km above Earth, it had warned.
“One of the big problems is that there are a lot of satellite constellations planned above 1000 km, so if this collision occurs, they would have to navigate through it on the way up and then on the way back when satellites are removed. Ceperley said.
A “useful” orbit about 750 km above Earth had already had to be vacated due to a Chinese anti-satellite weapons test in 2007 and a somewhat smaller satellite collision in 2009 that had created a large volume of debris, he said.
“If we keep removing parts of the space that are usable, it will run out of space in the not too distant future.”
LeoLabs explains the reasons for building its Naseby space radar in 2018.
The Naseby radar is the first built by LeoLabs that is capable of finding and tracking pieces of debris as small as 2cm in diameter, with a second now under construction in Costa Rica and two more on the planning board.
Ceperley said progress on international agreements to address space debris had been slow, but praised the New Zealand Space Agency, a division of the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment.
LeoLabs Vice President Alan DeClerck said people “might underestimate how important New Zealand’s leadership has been.”
“We are facing an event of potential global importance and the Kiwi space radar is playing a fundamental role in everyone’s understanding of what is happening here,” he said before the failure.
