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We all know exercise by now.
The nation holds its collective breath as the Prime Minister addresses the podium to announce the level of freedom that will be allowed us in the coming weeks. We have been here many times before, as New Zealand progressed, first up the Covid-19 alert level scale and then down, before rising and falling again in August and September.
Today at 1pm, Ardern will give his verdict on whether the current restrictions, known colloquially as level 2.5 in Auckland and level 2 in the rest of the country, will be lifted at midnight on Wednesday.
Despite the air of familiarity, this decision will be markedly different from the previous ones.
For starters, Ardern will not speak from the now familiar podium at the Beehive Theatrette, but from a conference room in the beautiful Dunedin Center. She will join Monday’s cabinet meeting via Zoom, speaking to ministers scattered across the country, as they were during the Level 4 lockdown.
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The reason for the change of scenery is obvious; there is an election campaign going on, and elections are not won from the square mile around Wellington’s Molesworth Street, which is the location of Premiere House, Beehive and the Ministry of Health and therefore where Ardern has spent great part of your time this year.
In fact, Ardern will only hold a brief press conference before embarking on a full afternoon of campaigning.
Despite the loaded political scene, the official criteria for changing alert levels remain the same. Ardern will emphasize health advice. The key to this will not just be the number of new cases in the community, which has been fairly low for weeks, but confidence in the government’s ability to map the spread of a group to isolate it.
It will be crucial to have confidence that the group-centered subgroup of the Evangelical Fellowship of Mount Roskill is contained. As of Sunday, 98 percent of the congregation had been screened, which should give health officials reasonable confidence that the subgroup is contained.
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Jacinda Ardern will be cautious ahead of today’s Cabinet alert level decision.
That could mean a relaxation of restrictions for Auckland, potentially lifting the limit on mass gatherings and moving into the level 2 style enjoyed in the rest of the country.
In rendering his verdict in Dunedin, Ardern will be well aware of the clamor from many in the South Island to lift restrictions to level 1. There has been no community case of Covid-19 on the South Island since the first outbreak and many hospitality companies and tourism are eager to remove restrictions and return to normalcy.
But Ardern is by nature cautious and risk averse; just look at the policy you’ve put in place for the elections.
That cautious approach has served him well during the Covid-19 fight. Not only did New Zealand overcome the first outbreak successfully, but as country after country struggled to contain the second waves of the virus, Ardern again managed to overcome what could have been a very aggressive resurgence.
But Ardern will balance that with the fear that endless restrictions will lead to Covid fatigue. People who are tired of the rules tend to follow them less rigorously, no matter how sensible they are. Too many restrictions could end up being counterproductive.
But for now he has the country on his side, and polls show they share his cautious frame of mind. UMR’s corporate polls, which are also conducted by Labor’s private polls, show that people remain concerned about Covid-19 and back the government’s tough measures to eradicate the virus.
People’s concern for the health of their immediate family has increased with the resurgence.
During the first confinement, 64 percent of people were very or somewhat concerned about the possibility of an immediate family member infecting Covid-19, which fell to only 36 percent during level 1, but rose again early. 51 percent of people this month after the Auckland outbreak. Only 10 percent of people are not worried at all.
In other words, as fatigued as people are from the ongoing restrictions, many are still quite concerned about the virus and its effects. This makes it easier to justify other measures.
The same survey found almost no change in support for easing border restrictions to allow international students to return to the country, a good indicator of how people feel about easing restrictions to help the economy.
Most importantly, a net 69% of people considered the government’s response “very good” or “good”, compared to 12% who were critical.
Ardern knows she has overwhelming support in whatever she chooses today. Therefore, caution and a desire to mitigate a further resurgence that could jeopardize that support will likely guide your decision making.
The economy will also be on your mind. This week the government will open its books before the elections. They will show a kind of fiscal bloodbath, although they may not be as bad as initially feared, and the accompanying economic forecasts could even be an improvement over what we saw the last time the government opened the books in may.
This week will also see Stats NZ publish their quarterly GDP statistics. These stats will capture the worst parts of the Covid-19 crashes and very little of the post-crash bump, which means they are sure to be the gloomiest GDP statistics ever released by Stats NZ.
For any other government running for office, such numbers would be a death sentence, but so far Ardern has managed to justify the economic pain as if it were worth it; Lockdowns save lives, and sticking with a light lockdown strategy actually seems to mitigate economic success. However, polls show that this message remains cutting.
The short time allotted for tomorrow’s press conference suggests that Ardern feels he won’t need to spend too much time justifying his decision, suggesting that he knows he has public acceptance no matter the outcome.
The real focus is the campaign, and the most important decision on Arden’s mind tomorrow isn’t hers at all, it’s the one you’ll make in October.
