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The SARS-CoV-2 virus, responsible for COVID-19, could affect the world for another two years, according to a new team of US-based pandemic researchers. USA
According to the experts’ report, released Thursday (US time), the spread of the deadly disease is likely to continue for a minimum of 18 months or a maximum of two years, until between 60 and 70 percent of the population has been infected.
The researchers recommended that the United States, the country with the highest number of COVID-19 cases and deaths, prepare for the worst case scenario, which they believe could mimic the devastation of the 1918 influenza pandemic.
“This will not stop until it infects 60 to 70 percent of people … The idea of this being done soon defies microbiology,” Mike Osterholm, director of the Center for Research and Policy on Infectious Diseases (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota told CNN.
Osterholm co-wrote the report in conjunction with Harvard School of Public Health epidemiologist and leading pandemic expert Marc Lipsitch; former epidemiologist at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and CIDRAP medical director, Dr. Kristine Moore; and historian John Barry, author of the 2004 book The Great Influenza on the 1918 Pandemic.
Experts believe that the virus will only begin to fade when herd immunity gradually develops in the human population. The concept of ‘collective immunity’ has been controversial by the Netherlands in its approach to the virus, which focuses on cushioning the economic impacts caused by blockades at the national level by avoiding common restrictions and adopting the acceptance that people will die.
The researchers drew their conclusions from various reports from other institutes, some of which have predicted very different results than the last report; COVID-19 published medical information; and historical data based on past pandemics, the latter is an essential element in understanding how the virus could develop, according to Lipstitch.
He and his co-authors believe that the SARS-CoV-2 virus is more comparable to previous pandemic influenza strains.
“Due to a longer incubation period, a more asymptomatic spread and a higher R0 [the average number of people infected by each patient]COVID-19 appears to spread more easily than the flu, “the report says.
“A higher R0 means that more people will need to become infected and become immune before the pandemic can end … According to the most recent flu pandemics, this outbreak will likely last between 18 and 24 months.”
Experts proposed three scenarios on how the virus could develop in the United States.
Scenario 1
The first wave of COVID-19, which has currently infected more than 1.13 million Americans and killed more than 66,360, is followed by a series of repetitive, smaller waves that continue throughout the United States summer (the New Zealand winter 2020) and steadily over a period of one to two years, fading into 2021.
Scenario 2
The first wave is followed by a second, larger wave in fall or winter (September 2020 to March 2021) and one or more smaller waves in 2021. Experts say this pattern will be similar to the influenza pandemic seen in 1918. and 1919, which infected over 500 million people worldwide and killed between 17 and 50 million.
Scenario 3
Experts also described a scenario in which “slow combustion” of the ongoing transmission would continue to cause new cases and deaths, but probably would not require “reinstatement of mitigation measures,” rules designed to control the spread of the outbreak, such as the protocol blocking from low alert level 4 in New Zealand.
However, the researchers say that governments should plan Scenario 2 to be prepared for the worst case scenario.
“Government officials should develop concrete plans, including triggers to reinstate mitigation measures, to deal with spikes in disease when they occur,” the experts wrote.
Both Lipstitch and Osterholm have expressed doubts about the benefits of lifting the COVID-19 response constraints too soon, claiming that “the experiment” could cost lives.
The report acknowledged that the COVID-19 course could be “influenced” by a vaccine, but noted that a vaccine will likely not be available until at least 2021, a date that could be delayed by possible challenges in the development process.
