Rising Transtasman bubble: positive step as number of infected Australian travelers revealed

Data has emerged showing that only three people who traveled directly from Australia to New Zealand tested positive for Covid-19 for eight months.

Experts have hailed it as a positive step towards a transtasman bubble, but say New Zealand needs to raise its border game to Australian levels to reduce the risk of creating a Covid-19 outbreak.

The data showing the three positive cases comes from a request from the Official Information Law to the Ministry of Health that seeks the number of positive cases of Covid-19 since March last year. It showed that there were 39 positive cases in March and April of last year, then almost nothing.

One case was identified in August, one in November, and one in January. Data from Statistics NZ shows that 23,447 people traveled from Australia to New Zealand during the same period.

University of Otago professors of epidemiologists Dr. Nick Wilson and Dr. Michael Baker supported the data adding force to the case for a bubble, but added a note of caution. Last year, academics conducted research on alternative ways to manage inbound travelers.

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Wilson said “thoughtful” systems were needed to travel without quarantine between Australia and New Zealand.

These included development processes so that each incoming Australian traveler had to download the Ministry of Health application to scan QR codes, activate its bluetooth function and agree to use it at all times during the first weeks.

He said saliva tests at the airport would also reduce the risk, as would a ban on attending large-scale events and randomly screening travelers with fines for those who circumvent the rules.

“I hope you are discussing these things now. The economic benefits are huge.

“In general, I would be more concerned with New Zealand border control than Australia. We just have such a flexible process.”

He said quarantine rules in Australia offered a higher level of protection against the virus, including rules such as that arrivals be limited to their rooms after arrival. In New Zealand, risk areas included bus trips for exercise, movement within MIQ facilities, mixed smokers in outdoor areas without masks, and other areas.

He said New Zealand’s focus had been locked on “path dependence,” meaning the government struggled to deviate from the developed system as the pandemic approached.

Wilson said the vaccination program in both countries was also encouraging and that as the percentage of the vaccinated population grew, so did the confidence in releasing travel.

Baker said the numbers were “very supportive evidence” for a transtasman bubble. It did not suggest safe travel, but new systems, such as those described by Wilson, could reduce risk to a manageable level.

“It is never ‘no risk’. There will always be risk. It’s about managing it successfully.

He said he preferred to use the term “green zone” to identify lower-risk countries, while those with high risk were in the “red zone.” He said that more work in the “red zone” countries to manage those traveling to New Zealand would reduce the possibility of border crossings.

“This is an opportunity to compare our border with Australia’s. The world needs successful models. It is a great opportunity to show a model that could be implemented globally.”

Baker said those traveling would have to accept that an outbreak in the community where they were visiting could lead to them being trapped there.

“That will be the trade-off: all travelers will have to approach this with their eyes open. Things can change very quickly.”

University of Auckland Microbiologist Associate Professor Dr Siouxsie Wiles said the data showing three infected travelers from Australia is encouraging.

“There is always the complication that not all people infect others, and some become super-spreaders.”

Wiles said it was important that those traveling from Australia did not share a plane with those in transit from other countries due to the possibility of contracting Covid-19 while flying.

He said that a possible risk to manage would be the opening of spaces in MIQ and the increase in travelers from less safe countries.

Health Minister Chris Hipkins said he was aware of the numbers and that Australia was considered lower risk for origin cases, which is why so much work was entering a trans-tasman bubble.

“But, as we said earlier, low risk is no risk. While we’ve always been clear that we would want to open this particular bubble as soon as we could, it wasn’t going to be before both countries were equally comfortable with risk.” .

Hipkins said the time spent on travel to Australia had strengthened New Zealand’s position for a “broader reopening of travel,” including topics such as insurance, clear messages for those who have to seek refuge and the impact on airlines and airports. facing a higher number of arrivals in a Covid-19 environment.

“Consolidating our position with regard to travel between here and Australia will help us establish a continuous model for the future.”

BusinessNZ CEO Kirk Hope said there was enthusiasm for a travel bubble with Australia.

“But if the cost of that raises alert levels in Auckland, it is a zero-sum game. The economic cost outweighs the benefit.”

Act Party leader David Seymour said doubts remained about the quality of New Zealand’s border controls even as Australia had improved its systems.

Seymour said New Zealand needed to stop viewing the world as having a worldwide equivalent risk and develop a system that responds to the “hot spots” of Covid-19.

Until he did, he said it echoed Australia’s question: “New Zealand, where the hell are you?”

A spokesperson for the Health Ministry said the data, along with other information, was used to develop New Zealand’s response to Covid-19. “This includes the potential for any travel bubble and when it may occur.”

The data showing the three positive cases was collected through the ESR database based on the people who were asked for the last three countries in which they had spent time.