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Labor is still far ahead in the latest TVNZ-Colmar Brunton poll, with 49 percent of the party’s votes.
That’s 4 points less than the last poll, which was conducted between November 28 and December 2 of last year.
National is up 2 points since that poll, but that’s just enough to see it record 27 percent support.
The Green Party is at 9 percent, one point higher, and ACT is stable at 8 percent.
NZ First and Te Pāti Māori are at two points each, while the New Conservatives and TOP complete the numbers by 1 point each.
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The headline numbers appear to show little change from the political situation in last year’s election, yet personal polls of leaders tell a different story.
Jacinda Ardern’s support has preferred the prime minister to be 43 percent, down 15 points since the last poll.
It is his lowest preferred prime minister score since last February, before the Covid-19 response. Labor is unlikely to lose much sleep over the collapse. National leader Judith Collins is also down, falling four points to 8 percent.
ROBERT KITCHEN / Things
Jacinda Ardern’s popularity has taken a hit in the latest poll.
ACT leader David Seymour is at 4 percent, the same level as the last poll. Chris Luxon is at 2 points, while Simon Bridges is at 1 percent, 1 point higher.
None of this will greatly change the composition of the current Parliament.
Assuming Rawiri Waititi of Te Pāti Māori wins his seat, Labor would still have a dominant majority with 62 seats, up from 65 today.
National would win an extra seat, giving him 34.
The Greens and ACT would get 11 seats, one seat each, while Te Pāti Māori would remain level at 2 seats.
The survey also asked how New Zealanders felt about the economy – 42 percent felt optimistic, down 8 points, while 29 percent felt pessimistic, down 4 points, suggesting a higher level of uncertainty in all areas.
For the first time in 26 years, the TVNZ-Colmar Brunton survey was conducted without using a landline phone.
1 News political editor Jessica Mutch McKay wrote before the survey that they believed a more accurate survey was possible by ditching landlines.
Before the last election, the poll used a 60/40 split between cell phones and landlines, but that has changed for this poll.
“This latest survey was conducted using 50% randomly generated mobile phone numbers and 50% online from New Zealanders who signed up for market research studies.
“The polls will continue to speak to 1000 people. By calling random people, the sample will be robust and the online interviews are carefully conducted to ensure they are representative of all New Zealanders, ”wrote Mutch McKay.
He said the results remain weighted as usual and have the same margin of error as previous polls.
