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OPINION: Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s biggest challenge for 2021 is monumental: opening the border.
As we sit here enjoying the Covid-19-free summer in the community, you might be wondering, what’s the rush? Well, the biggest arms race of the 21st century is on: except the arms here are on our bodies. And the armament is a needle: we are talking about vaccines. The stakes are huge: Countries that achieve the right deployment will emerge more powerful in a post-Covid-19 world.
iSTOCK
The country that obtains the correct implementation of the vaccine first will come out more powerful.
New Zealand is a world leader in its elimination strategy. Now, the crucial question is: can we continue that wave of success with a safe and rapid deployment of vaccines and open our borders?
Australia has put a line in the sand. He wants the entire population to be vaccinated by October 2021, and presumably the borders will open soon after. New Zealand has so far been silent on a date.
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For countries that quickly vaccinate their populations, the benefits will be measured in the billions. Lives will be saved, trade can resume freely, businesses can look outside their home market, and international tourism can resume. And there are some early pioneers: Israel wants 25 percent of its population to be injected by the end of this month, and so far it leads the world per capita in delivering Covid-19 vaccines.
In New Zealand, we are taking a more considered approach and are awaiting more evidence from emergency use trials before giving the green light. Lives are not in immediate danger here, but livelihoods are what borders remain closed the longest.
Brook Sabin / Stuff
Statistics may say that domestic tourism is doing well, but meeting operators give you a real picture of the situation.
I just spent 100 days touring New Zealand as part of Stuff Travel’s Back Your Backyard campaign. Politicians can show statistics saying that things are going well, but talking to people on the ground is where you get a real idea of how things are going.
Many tourism providers relied on the wage subsidy until September, then hoped that the summer period would provide sufficient cash flow until the Australian bubble opened, potentially in the first quarter of this year. However, with new outbreaks in New South Wales and Victoria, a travel bubble may not occur. Thus, there is a small but growing possibility that tourism providers will have to wait for the vaccine rollout to complete before international tourists arrive. And most desperately want to know when.
The year of herd immunity?
One of the terms you’re about to hear a lot about in 2021 is “herd immunity”; In the case of New Zealand, it is when a sufficient level of our population is vaccinated, which means that Covid-19 will not spread quickly. Our border will not be fully opened until this is accomplished.
The Ministry of Health has not said what level of herd immunity will be required, because it is impossible to say at this time. However, having a better estimate is important, and the current opinion of Dr. Anthony Fauci (director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases) is “70 to 80 percent” of a country’s population. . Initially, Fauci said between 70 and 75 percent, but that number has risen in recent weeks.
So in the “arms race” I mentioned earlier, the gold figure is likely to be between 70% and 85% of our population, or between 3.5 and 4.25 million New Zealanders.
Governments, ours included, are making big bets on different vaccines in the hopes that they can buy enough, and then get it early enough, to vaccinate their populations and open borders.
So, let’s take a look at New Zealand’s roll of the dice when it comes to vaccines.
Pfizer and BioNTech
This vaccine has been approved in several counties for emergency use and is about 95 percent effective in preventing symptomatic infections.
New Zealand has ordered 1.5 million doses so far, and if two doses are needed, this is enough for 750,000 people. This could start coming as early as March, however any implementation will depend on our regulator Medsafe granting approval. It must also be frozen at very low temperatures, making it more difficult to transport and distribute than other vaccines.
Janssen Pharmaceutica
An agreement has been signed to purchase up to five million vaccines from Janssen Pharmaceutica, and the Health Ministry says this is likely to require a single dose.
The company, a division of Johnson & Johnson based in Belgium, is conducting a major phase 3 (or end-stage trial) of 60,000 people and the vaccine technology uses a method with a strong safety record in other diseases. .
The results of the phase 3 trial are expected in January / February. If it is effective, it would be a great advantage for New Zealand as this vaccine only requires one dose and does not need to be stored at very low temperatures.
Martin Bureau / AP
A health worker holds a syringe and a COVID-19 vaccine at the Hotel Dieu vaccination center in Paris.
Novavax
Novavax began phase 3 testing in the United States and the United Kingdom, however, some major hurdles remain. The vaccine must first demonstrate its effectiveness, which will not be known for at least a few months. So if it works, New Zealand won’t get this vaccine “until later in 2021,” according to the Ministry of Health. It would cover 5.36 million people.
AstraZeneca
The Oxford / AstraZeneca vaccine began rolling out for emergency use in the UK this week, and our government has secured access to 7.6 million doses. Since two doses will be needed, this is enough for 3.8 million people. So far, the results indicate that the vaccine is 62 to 90 percent effective, depending on the dose. And this can be stored at regular refrigeration temperature.
When will our borders open?
Two of the previous vaccines, Pfizer and AstraZeneca, have already been approved for emergency use by foreign regulators. Assuming Medsafe approves them, that would provide enough vaccines for 5.3 million people, well above the 70-85 percent needed for herd immunity.
The crucial question is: when will we get enough vaccines to achieve herd immunity? The Ministry of Health says that a general implementation will begin in the second half of 2021, but when it is complete is what we must focus on; there hasn’t been an official word on it yet.
Could we achieve herd immunity in October, as Australia intends to do? That would be the best case, and one that Ardern will undoubtedly work for. The Prime Minister will not want Australia to open its borders while we are left behind, despite having the advantage of having a smaller population.
I guess Australia’s schedule is too optimistic, and it will eventually settle for doing it by the end of 2021. This is probably a more realistic scenario for New Zealand as well.
In another third scenario, it is possible that not enough vaccine will arrive in 2021 and that herd immunity will only be achieved sometime in 2022. There are many variables that could change these projections, but these are my three best guesses.
The Jacinda Ardern government did well in its elimination approach. Those who advocate the Swedish “let it in” model have largely been silent, as history proved it to be a mistake. Ardern’s approach was the right one: we are one of the few countries that have just enjoyed Christmas gatherings without restrictions.
But public sentiment could change if other countries like Australia and Singapore open their borders much earlier than ours. It’s a game of vaccine chess, and the right strategy will be a multi-million dollar boost to our economy.
