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The biggest mistake about Jacinda Ardern is that she is a pioneer progressive or socialist. This is especially true outside of New Zealand.
It is understandable that the world media portray the prime minister as a counterpoint to other more right-wing or illiberal leaders. Similarly, many progressive activists and intellectuals abroad have taken her as someone they can learn from in their search for a way forward for the political left.
However, the biggest lesson to be learned from “Ardernismo” is the power of conservatism during a crisis. That’s where the Labor Party politician has stood out, in 2020 and previous years, as a leader. The then 37-year-old took the helm of a failing party in 2017, which was voting only 24%, and led Labor to a coalition government just weeks later. In the last general election, his party won a record 50% of the vote, giving him a historic opportunity to form a new government without the need for coalition partners.
As Prime Minister, she has excelled in crisis management, dealing with multiple disasters and threats. And in these crises, most New Zealanders have craved conservatism rather than any kind of radicalism. The population has wanted a solid and reliable government.
Overall, Ardern and his government have succeeded. That is why the prime minister is far above any other politician in this country. Yes, she has been charismatic in her leadership, but more importantly, she has been competent and politically centrist.
Ardern’s instincts have been to protect and conserve. He has tread cautiously throughout the pandemic, bringing reassurance and the promise of normalcy to those who fear the worst.
Even the leader of the right-wing party, David Seymour, said this week: “She is very good at reading the public mood and spreading unifying messages.” He correctly explained: “She has done that three times now, she did it after Christchurch, after White Island and during the Covid-19 period.” Seymour concluded that Ardern was “an excellent front-line leader.”
It would be foolish to suggest otherwise. New Zealand enters the holiday season with hardly any Covid-related restrictions within the country. There is no community transmission of the virus.
New Zealanders credit Ardern’s leadership for saving lives and saving the economy. In general, she is seen as “following the science” and taking a compassionate approach by “acting tough and early” when the virus struck in March, blocking the country to a greater extent than any other nation.
Ardern’s leadership at Covid was not particularly leftist. Following the best conservative tradition, it unified the nation, as it had done in the wake of other crises. This general Covid approach actually had a large degree of consensus from across the political spectrum (albeit with differences over its implementation).
So it was not surprising that when it came to the October general election, many traditional National Party voters leaned toward Labor, wanting to reward Ardern. Corporate leaders praised her, and she listens to business (more, it seems, than unions). Unsurprisingly, the entire Labor election campaign was over Ardern, and his victory over Covid was central to this, with his electoral mantra that he had delivered a ‘strong and stable government’.
Now, at the end of the year, even right-wing political commentators are singing Ardern’s praises. It is as if she is the centrist politician they want the National Party to lead. They want to claim Ardern as a fellow conservative.
This is not to say that Ardern is not progressive or right wing. He may be to the right of the Labor Party and have embraced many of National’s policies and approaches, but he does something his opponents apparently cannot emulate: embrace compassion as part of his conservatism. His self-declared “policy of kindness” is not particularly revolutionary, not even very tangible, but it does ring completely true to those who have watched Ardern navigate the nation’s crises.
However, the political left is increasingly irritated by Ardern’s conservatism. There is growing anguish over the failure to advance a traditional Labor Party agenda. Anti-poverty activists are now protesting against Ardern. Greta Thunberg tweets disappointed by her inaction on climate change. Columnists complain about Ardern’s inaction on the housing crisis. The rich are said to be getting richer and the poor much poorer under his supervision. And by continuing to rule out any wealth or capital gains tax in 2020, Ardern has angered those who want to see a transformation.
Ardern’s reputation with progressives particularly sunk this year on the issue of drug reform, due to his refusal to advocate for the legalization of cannabis before the referendum. The reformers knew that Ardern’s endorsement would have pushed the campaign out of line, but Ardern knew that sitting on the fence was less risky for his popularity.
Ardern now responds to the many complaints with the latest conservative argument, saying he wants to make an incremental change “that sticks” by getting consensus. She explains that she is a “pragmatic idealist,” which is increasingly translated as driven by public opinion.
The political left may celebrate a triumphant year in which its main party and politician are extremely popular. But they must also accept that this is a direct result of Ardern’s conservative approach.
Ardern has begun to use the traditional National Party line of the need to “rule for all of New Zealand” (rather than what might be expected from the left: a progressive agenda to advance the interests of those below). This conservative approach is what has previously kept the right-wing party essentially in power for decades, presiding over the status quo. Now it seems that it is time for the conservatives on the left to do the same for the foreseeable future.
Dr. Bryce Edwards is a resident political analyst at Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, where he is the director of the Democracy Project.
