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The two big stories in Britain in 2020, Brexit and Covid-19, have played out in parallel, without having much of an impact on each other. But as the end of the Brexit transition period approaches on December 31, David Gauke, a former Conservative chancellor, points out that, as in “the end of a television series, the plots finally come together.”
The event that has brought the two stories together is the emergence of a new variant of the Covid-19 virus, believed to be particularly contagious, which has led many countries in Europe and beyond to ban entry from Britain, as well. than negotiations on a position. -The Brexit trade agreement between Great Britain and the European Union enters its final days.
Kirsty Wigglesworth / AP
Security guards guard the entrance to the ferry terminal in Dover on Monday after the port was closed and access to the Eurotunnel terminal suspended. France banned all travel from the UK for 48 hours starting at midnight on Sunday, including trucks carrying goods through the Channel Tunnel or from the port of Dover.
The location of this final act is Kent County, in the southeast, which is where the variant was first identified and is home to the Port of Dover. The port, through which 90 per cent of Britain’s truck traffic passes with the EU, was preparing to face the problems on December 31, but the problems came early. On December 20 it was closed due to the closure of the French border. At lunchtime on Dec. 21, the Road Haulage Association (RHA), a trade body, said the truck queue on the M20 toward Dover was several miles long.
The impact will be felt far beyond Kent, and not just by abandoned truckers. UK shoppers may find fresh produce shortages: RHA’s Richard Burnett said “many drivers and haulers from the EU refuse to come to the UK” and Sainsbury, a supermarket, warned there could be a shortage of lettuce and cabbage . , broccoli and citrus, all of which cross the English Channel to Dover.
READ MORE:
* Covid-19: UK strives to cushion the consequences of virus mutation
* Covid-19: EU approves vaccine after agency approves safety
* The cost of failure: What’s at stake if Brexit talks to the founder?
* Brexit: a last minute light trade deal is better than no deal at all
* Cut: Gridlock, people stranded due to travel ban to Great Britain due to impact of new strain of coronavirus
Businesses across the country are vulnerable. France has called for a strict new Covid-19 testing regime to be established before the borders can be reopened. Given the tensions over Britain’s testing capacity, that could be difficult to achieve.
Three themes have led to the stories intertwining in the episode “Christmas from Hell.” One is the nature of viruses, which tend to mutate. Covid-19’s sudden leap forward appears to have made it more contagious. No one is quite sure whether the variant originated in Britain or was identified there because British scientists have extensively sequenced the virus genome. But the spread of the virus has accelerated in Britain: Covid-19 cases nearly doubled in the week to Dec. 20, prompting his government to backtrack on its plans to ease restrictions for Christmas and governments. from other countries to play it safe by banning travel from Britain. .
Gareth Fuller / AP
Trucks queue for the Port of Dover in Kent, England, as the clock ticks on the possibility of the UK reaching a trade deal with the EU before the end of the Brexit transition period on December 31.
The nature of the negotiations is also responsible for the year-end crisis. It has been four years since Britain voted to leave the EU, more than a year since the Withdrawal Agreement was agreed between Britain and the EU and only nine days until the end of the transition period, but discussions persist on the final elements of the agreement.
The two main sticking points are fish and a “level playing field”: how to ensure that competition between the two parties remains fair even if their regulatory systems diverge over time. Both parties want an agreement, but neither wants to give in, so the negotiations are moving towards the abyss at the end of the year. If Britain leaves without a deal, trade in goods will face tariffs on agricultural products of up to 40 percent and more paperwork. Stockpiling by retailers, concerned about year-end outages, exacerbated truck delays that were already causing problems in Kent.
Kirsty Wigglesworth / AP
A police officer directs traffic at the entrance to the closed ferry terminal in Dover after the port was closed and access to the Eurotunnel terminal was suspended following the announcement by the French government.
Finally, what Gauke identifies as the government’s “optimistic bias” has also contributed to this crisis. Throughout the pandemic and Brexit negotiations, Boris Johnson, whose reluctance to deliver bad news is well known, has promised too much and delivered less. By constantly looking on the bright side, the prime minister has not prepared for a darker outcome. Thus, it was slow to lock down the country in March, exacerbating the initial outbreak, was slow to put a test and trace system in place, and was slow to react to news of the new Covid-19 strain. And on Brexit, his government has consistently promised that the deal would be “the easiest in human history” and that “we have all the cards.” Given that Britain is more vulnerable to the consequences of a “no deal” than any other European country, this is obviously false; and yet the government seems to believe it enough to bring Britain to the brink, and perhaps even overcome it.
Gareth Fuller / AP
Trucks queue to enter the Port of Dover.
Still, while the season finale will be unpleasant for most Brits, it could still turn out to be good news for the government. If the Brexit-related chaos is subsumed into the Covid-related chaos, then one can try to blame the shortage in stores on a combination of nature and French ruffians, who provide a useful scapegoat when Britain is wrong.
© 2020 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. From The Economist published under license. The original article can be found at www.economist.com
