Christmas weather: New Zealand’s rainy week to settle down the big day arrives

Forecasters are saying the Christmas forecast is “very lucky” as, while it may not be the quintessential hot Kiwi summer day, it could have been much worse.

After a week of rain and isolated downpours across much of the country, MetService now predicts a relatively stable Christmas Day for most places, though for some it may feel a little closer to winter than they would like.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa, a former Category 5 system that devastated parts of Fiji and killed four people, has now downgraded to a former Tropical Cyclone as it moves south of Tonga.

At one point it appeared to be tracking a direct hit over the North Island but, thanks to a powerful high pressure ridge this week, the system has weakened substantially and any remnants seeking to track the southeast of the country.

“We were very lucky that we did not get hit by a tropical cyclone during Christmas,” said MetService meteorologist Ashlee Parkes.

“It is still active so it is difficult to track it, but at this stage it seems to be moving towards the southeast of the country.”

However, two low pressure systems are expected to arrive in the coming days from across the Tasman Sea.

While they are not tied to Yasa, they will bring warm tropical air from the northwest, meaning a lot of humidity for the west coast of the South Island.

The eastern parts of the North Island will be the hot spots, with mostly good conditions and temperatures in the late 20s.

Parkes said the first casualty would bring rain to most of the South Island on Monday.

A heavy rain watch is in effect today for Westland south of the Glaciers and Fiordland north of Milford Sound.

The North Island looked pretty good, with only a few rains inland south of Waikato.

The decline would continue in the rest of the country on Tuesday, bringing scattered rains to both main islands.

The system would gradually clear on Wednesday, and the North Island would look good again along with the South Island early, before another deeper low was late, bringing more rain to the west coast and potentially spreading east into Canterbury.

This is likely to continue through Thursday, before clearing overnight with a more stable southwest flow taking over.

“This will see isolated rains in the western and fine areas but with cloudy periods in the east,” Parkes said.

“This is not the classic Kiwi summer day, but it will be better than what we will have earlier this week.”

On the big day, Auckland would see good spells and a high of 21 ° C.

The best places seem to be the eastern areas of the North Island, with Tauranga and Napier reaching maximum temperatures of 25 ° C and mostly with good weather.

Meanwhile, the South Island looked a bit worse, bearing the brunt of the cold southwesterly flow further.

Christchurch would see a maximum of 18 ° C, while Dunedin would only reach 16 ° C with showers and Invercargill an even cooler 15 ° C.

Forecasts for Christmas Day

Whangarei Good spells. The southwest winds decrease. 24 ° C high, 15 ° C at night.

Auckland Good spells. Winds from the southwest decrease. 21 ° C high, 15 ° C at night.

Hamilton Good spells. The southwest winds are gradually disappearing. 22 ° C high, 10 ° C at night.

Tauranga Good spells. The southwesterly winds die off in the morning. 25 ° C high, 13 ° C at night.

New Plymouth Good spells. Southwesterlies. 20 ° C high, 11 ° C at night.

Rotorua Good spells. The southwesterly winds die off in the morning. 23 ° C high, 10 ° C at night.

Napier Cloudy periods. The southerners gradually disappeared. 25 ° C high, 14 ° C at night.

WellingtonGetting well. The south winds die off in the afternoon. 20 ° C high, 11 ° C at night.

NelsonGetting well. The southwest winds are dying out. 22 ° C high, 10 ° C at night.

ChristchurchCloudy periods. Northeast winds are developing. 18 ° C high, 8 ° C at night.

DunedinCloudy periods. Showers since the morning. The winds turn soft. 16 ° C high, 8 ° C at night.