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More transmissible than other strains, it may require stricter blocks.
Virus of the fashionistas of the world of the microbes. They change their appearance constantly, but these changes are usually small, transitory, and of little practical importance in terms of how they spread or how deadly they are. SARS-CoV-2, the covid-19 virus, has so far been no exception.
But a new variant that is spreading rapidly in Britain appears to contradict the trend. According to researchers advising the British government, it can be 40 to 70 percent more transmissible than the other variants in circulation. Britain has alerted the World Health Organization to this variant, tentatively named VUI 202012/01 (short for the first “variant under investigation” in December 2020).
Authorities are quick to limit its spread. Areas of Britain where VUI 202012/01 is most prevalent, including London, were locked in the early hours of December 20. In the evening, Belgium, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Italy had banned flights from Britain. Other countries will surely follow suit.
VUI 202012/01 was first found in Great Britain in September. By mid-December, genomic sequencing had detected more than 1,500 infections involving it in the country (about 10 percent of people in Britain who test positive also have their viruses sequenced).
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Belgium, Denmark and the Netherlands have reported some cases of the variant. But most European countries sequence a much smaller proportion of their samples than Britain, so a wider circulation of this variant outside of Britain cannot be ruled out, says Pasi Penttinen of the European Center for Prevention and Control. Disease Control.
It is not yet clear whether VUI 202012/01 causes symptoms different or of different severity than those induced by its cousins. Studies are underway in Britain to answer that question. Researchers are also looking for additional evidence that this variant is more contagious and what biological mechanisms may be at play.
Two factors suggest greater contagion. First, it has spread much faster than other variants in parts of Britain where infections have risen unusually fast. It accounted for 62 percent of new infections in London in the week ending December 9, up from 28 percent in early November.
Matt Dunham / AP
If the new strain is confirmed to be more contagious, it could mean stricter lockdown measures everywhere.
The second red flag is the particular combination of mutations and other adjustments in your 23-genome, which experts say is an unusually large number given how the virus has changed so far. More worryingly, laboratory and animal studies have found that several of these changes cause the virus to better infect cells, make more copies of itself once it enters those cells, and avoid antibodies produced by the immune system during infection. with other variants.
Several of the changes in VUI 202012/01 are in “spike”, a protein found on its surface that it uses to enter cells. The spike protein is the target of the first Covid-19 vaccines. But these vaccines stimulate the immune reaction to parts of the protein that are not affected by these mutations. And if more mutations changed that situation, some of the vaccines are of a type that is much easier to adjust to fix the problem than conventional drugs.
The big concern for now is whether VUI 202012/01 is, in fact, much more contagious than other variants. If current estimates from UK preliminary data are confirmed, the reproductive number of the virus (known as R) may increase by 0.4 or more, which is the average number of people who contract the virus from an infected individual.
This will mean that much stricter measures would be needed to curb the spread of Covid-19 wherever this variant lands. Therefore, urgent attempts to contain its spread are justified. How much can be slowed down until vaccines start to make a difference is an open question.
© 2020 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. From The Economist published under license. The original article can be found at www.economist.com
