‘That Could Be Us Tomorrow’ – Senior Epidemiologist Warns What Sydney Covid-19 Outbreak Means For Aotearoa

As Australian health officials struggle to contain the Covid-19 outbreak in Sydney, a leading epidemiologist warns that “it could be us.”

Professor Michael Baker says New Zealand is entering possibly “our most dangerous phase” since the August Auckland outbreak as the pandemic emerges in the Northern Hemisphere.

Baker from the University of Otago School of Public Health is now asking returnees from countries where the virus is “out of control” to take an extra step and isolate themselves under supervision in a hotel and get tested sooner. even getting on the plane.

The new strain of Covid-19 spreading rapidly across the UK, forcing a third of its population to shut down, was further proof that the government needs to implement a “stoplight” system, he said.

“For New Zealand to spend the next few months until a vaccine is widely available, it has to have another control measure in the country of origin to really try to reduce the number of infected people arriving here, which is potentially our greatest vulnerability.” . Baker said, “Particularly now it appears that there is a possibility that the most infectious virus will become dominant.”

The Health Ministry yesterday reported six new cases since Friday in isolation facilities run among people who returned from South Africa, Australia, the United States and the Netherlands.

The Ministry said it was also “closely monitoring” the outbreak in Sydney, which reported 30 new cases reported overnight, forcing the cluster’s epicenter, North Beaches, to close and the Sydney metropolitan area due to restrictions. .

New South Wales health director Kerry Chant said finding the source of the outbreak on northern beaches could be a “challenge beyond us” despite extensive investigation.

Officials said they expected the numbers to rise.

The New Zealand government is taking a wait-and-see approach towards the outbreak and the impact it would have on the proposed transtasman travel bubble.

A spokesman said the deal would not start until the first quarter of next year, but that would depend on there being no significant change in circumstances in either country.

“We are monitoring the situation closely, but it is too early to make decisions based on the current community cases in New South Wales.”

Baker said arrivals from New South Wales did not need to be treated differently, as their case numbers were still proportionally “tiny” and Australia was committed to ending the outbreak to continue its elimination goal.

“The bottom line is that this should be a big wake-up call for us, that it could be us today or tomorrow. We need that continued caution here,” Baker said.

“It’s a pretty crazy line, but while we’re on vacation, the virus is not on vacation. The virus is behaving as usual.”

As the pandemic surges around the world, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, with nearly 21.2 million active cases, Baker said this could arguably be the most dangerous stage for New Zealand since the August outbreak in Auckland. .

All infected returnees pose a threat to us, he said.

“There is always the possibility of error.”

Baker said he wanted the government to implement a stoplight approach to arrivals so that people from higher-risk countries have stricter quarantine measures.

Ideally, you would like those deemed high risk to isolate themselves for about three days in a supervised hotel and return a negative test before even getting on the plane to travel to New Zealand.

The new strain of Covid-19, which forced British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to cancel Christmas for more than 16 million Britons living in London and south-east England, will likely spread across the UK and Europe, he said. .

While it did not appear to be more deadly or that vaccines and treatments were unaffected by it, scientists believed it was more infectious.

Baker said this “shouldn’t be a big surprise” because it was normal for viruses to mutate, but it could make them difficult to contain.

“And that is a problem”.

Baker said New Zealanders need to be vigilant during the summer and the most important things to do are:

• If you have cold or flu symptoms, cancel your plans, stay home, and seek advice on getting tested.

• wash your hands regularly

• download and use the Covid Tracer application religiously and activate the Bluetooth function

• get used to wearing a mask and be prepared to use it.

There should be no relaxation of our precautions.