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The explosion of coronavirus cases on Sydney’s North Beaches is likely related to a single super-spread event, one expert has warned.
The pool of Covid-19 infections has risen dramatically to 17, prompting the New South Wales government to ask area residents to stay home and prompting several states and territories to re-impose strict border restrictions. .
A clinical epidemiologist at the University of Melbourne, Professor Nancy Baxter, said the outbreak was “extremely worrying” and warned that cases will likely continue to rise.
“There are now 17 people identified with this group. It looks like the super spread event probably happened on December 11,” he told ABC News Breakfast.
“They have had seven days that this has been circulating. Although various people have been linked to the group, we do not know who the original source was.
“That person has been circulating for that period of time. I anticipate that several additional people will be identified with Covid-19.”
Baxter said the person likely had mild or no symptoms and may no longer be contagious, but they likely spread the virus unknowingly for a significant period of time.
NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian revealed this morning that genomic sequencing indicated that the virus came from a foreign source.
“In some ways that has obviously spread to the community,” Berejiklian told Today.
“We are concerned that there could have been what we call seeding events, people from the northern beaches may not have known they had the virus, have gone to other parts of Sydney, and people unintentionally affected.”
Residents of the northern beaches have been asked to stay home for the next three days as much as possible and avoid unnecessary travel out of the area.
They have also been asked not to visit friends or family in nursing homes or hospitals unless essential, and to avoid high-risk places like clubs, restaurants, churches and gyms.
There is speculation as to whether the New South Wales government will follow the South Australian government’s approach and impose a severe blockade of “circuit breakers”, similar to the restrictions imposed on Adelaide after the recent outbreak in the city.
Baxter said the government may try to “fence” northern beaches to stop the spread of the cluster.
“It’s difficult to know what the correct approach is. They have recommended that even in the area you stay home for three days.
“They have not placed an order. I would say what will happen today, if there are more cases, it will change from a recommendation to an order. To try to fence around this group, to try to manage they have not yet handled it.”
He said an important rule that should be enforced is the wearing of masks, adding that everyone in Sydney should wear masks in public at this time.
Baxter said the recent loosening of restrictions also increased the risk of these types of outbreaks.
“So I think we all need to remember that we are experiencing a pandemic right now, and while we are doing much better in Australia than elsewhere, we cannot let our guard down.
“It is not a business as usual. We have to maintain some restrictions and differences than our usual lives, even during the vacation period.”
NSW’s contact trackers are now racing against the clock to find the source of the virus and contain the group in time for Christmas.
Berejiklian said the next 24 to 48 hours were “absolutely critical” in controlling the outbreak.
“This is why we are working around the clock to get over it. But we need the help of the public. The public has been fantastic up to this point,” he told Today.
“We just need your help. If you live on the northern beaches, follow the health advice.
“If you live in Greater Sydney, take extra precautions. If we all come together and do the right thing, we will have a better chance of having a good Christmas and I think we all deserve to be with our loved ones and have a break. But that will depend on how. Let’s work together for the next few days. “