The second tropical cyclone, Zazu, is preparing in the Pacific, but Yasa is likely to hit New Zealand

A second tropical cyclone has formed in the Pacific leaving the islands with plenty of rainy and windy days before Christmas.

Cyclone Zazu is currently in the sea between Tonga and the Cook Islands and, as of 7am today, is Category 1 with hurricane force winds.

Since then, Tropical Cyclone Yasa has been upgraded to Category 2 with winds now reaching between 90 and 120 km / h.

Philip Duncan of Weatherwatch.co.nz says that Zazu will likely also surge to a Category 2 cyclone today.

However, fortunately for New Zealand, Zazu did not pose any risk, while there was a 40% chance that Yasa’s remains would reach our shores.

There was a 20 percent chase that Yasa would trigger severe warnings if he landed.

Since Zazu was so close to the islands, it was likely to cause problems in both Tonga and southern parts of the Cook Islands.

That would cause dangerous seas, strong and sustained gales to hit island nations, with the worst expected to remain at sea.

While Yasa is likely to cause damage and possible evacuations in Fiji, when it arrived in New Zealand, Duncan said it might not even be a storm.

“Each tropical cyclone loses its warm core just as it approaches New Zealand. Some, like Cyclone Gita a couple of years ago, can retain the look and power of a cyclone during this process. Others collapse.

“Certainly the modeling hints that any possible New Zealand impact may not be from a storm at all, but simply the remnants of a former cyclone, in the form of a low pressure, rain system.”

Given Yasa’s volatility, Duncan said there are currently a few different scenarios for kiwis on Christmas Day.

“The high pressure dominates, the remnants of Yasa do not arrive, most dry up. The remnants of Yasa crumble over New Zealand bringing rain and showers. A combination of the above with high pressure brings dry areas to some regions, but the remnants Yasa’s bring some clouds and humid weather too. “

By the time Yasa arrived in New Zealand, there was only “a low risk that by then it was still a ‘storm’ in our part of the world.”

However, its impact on Fiji seemed worrying.

It was expected to “have a decent impact on parts of Fiji”, possibly bringing some wind, rain and dangerous seas around Vanuatu for a time from the east.

The data indicated that Yasa could become a severe Category 4 cyclone or stronger.

“It currently rotates in roughly the same location at sea. It is likely to remain at this similar location through Tuesday and Wednesday.

“However, from Wednesday night to Thursday and maybe Friday, Cyclone Yasa could have a major impact on Fiji as it begins to move south.”

That could lead to severe flooding, slipping and structural damage and could result in Fijians having to evacuate to higher ground.

“This now more direct route to Fiji is of great concern, especially as Yasa is projected to be a major cyclone in terms of strength by then … potentially Category 4, which can have sustained winds of nearly 200 km / h.”