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Windy.com
Cyclone Yasa’s predicted position for December 23, according to the ECMWF forecast on Windy.com.
Christmas may see the arrival of an unwanted guest in New Zealand in the form of Cyclone Yasa, the first tropical cyclone of the season.
While the country is ready to soak up the sun under blue skies this week and in temperatures between 20 and 20 degrees, the promise of a sun-soaked Christmas day seems vague.
Category 1 Cyclone Yasa is currently in the tropical Pacific between Fiji and Vanuatu, where, according to meteorologist Niwa Ben Noll, “it is expected to strengthen as it churns over very hot ocean water, fuel for cyclones. “.
The cyclone has appeared on radars from both the US Global Forecast System (GFS) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
Weatherwatch.co.nz also claims there is a 40 per cent chance the cyclone will hit New Zealand, though it also said its path remains unclear at present.
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“The 40 percent confidence is based on models from various agencies over the past few days and reflects our current confidence,” said Weatherwatch.co.nz.
“The storm will undergo a major structural change at this point, which means that a number of future scenarios are possible, from a serious hit to a real low that only brings some rain, to one that crumbles and completely loses New Zeeland. “
Noll, however, was more cautious.
He said that both GFS and ECMWF produce forecasts around the world in ranges of 10 to 16 days using satellites, aircraft and ground weather stations.
“Generally speaking, the forecasts are very reliable for three days, decently reliable for three to five days, after day five the reliability can be moderate to low.”
Noll said he believed Cyclone Yasa would remain at its current location for the next few days and was currently classified in Category 1 for wind speed, at the lower end of the scale.
“At this moment the uncertainty is high. The possibility of New Zealand being affected is low at the moment, but it is worth watching. “
Noll also recommended caution with weather models, as “to the inexperienced eye, it can seem overwhelming.”
“The forecast can change dramatically in half a day,” he said.
Noll also said that the current La Niña weather pattern, which occurs when strong winds blow warm water on the ocean surface away from South America, across the Pacific Ocean into Indonesia, increased the risk of cyclones hitting New Zealand. .
“From New Zealand’s perspective, [Yasa is] It’s not something we should worry about. “
For those closest to the cyclone’s current location, however, Noll said it “absolutely should be on your radar.”
Additionally, climate change is expected to bring more powerful storms and more severe flooding, as warmer temperatures make New Zealand’s climate more turbulent.
MetService’s tropical cyclone forecaster Raveen Das also cautioned about the reliability of the long-term forecast for events like cyclones, saying that another factor complicating the predictions was the development of another cyclone near Samoa.
“That will have an impact on Yasa’s likely trajectory,” he said.
“Two cyclones, that complicates things a lot.”
Both Noll and Das also said that a much more reliable forecast of Yasa’s progress and the possibility of her reaching New Zealand will be possible by this Friday or early next week.
