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Depending on which projection turns out to be correct, New Zealand’s population could be declining by the 2050s, or it could exceed 7 million, Statistics New Zealand says.
On Tuesday, it released its national population projections for the period through 2073, based on a base population of 5.094 million as of June 30, 2020.
While New Zealand’s population grew 2.3 percent in the year through June 30, the fastest rate since the early 1960s, growth is likely to slow in the long run, Stats NZ said.
Makes a range of projections, from the lowest 5th percentile, where there is considered a 95th probability that the true value is higher, to the 95th percentile.
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A more central projection indicates that the population could reach 6 million in the next 20 to 30 years.
The projections indicate possible population outcomes taking into account different combinations of assumptions for births, deaths, and migration.
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New Zealand’s future population projections vary widely, and “considerable uncertainty” about the number of births is a major reason for the vast possibilities.
New Zealand’s population had a 90 percent chance of increasing to 5.13 to 5.51 million in 2025 and to 5.19 to 5.94 million in 2030, Stats NZ said.
For 2073, the projections indicate a population of between 5.3 and 8.5 million, and the median projection indicates a population of 6.8 million.
Since 2014, net migration has been the biggest driver of population change in New Zealand, Stats NZ said. For most of the previous 140 years, it had been a natural increase: births minus deaths.
Projections saw the natural increase become less important in the future, with the total fertility rate reaching a record low of 1.63 in 2020.
Stats NZ expects between 55,000 and 65,000 births a year through the 2020s, after just under 60,000 babies in 2020. But it said there was considerable uncertainty with the number.
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Ryman Healthcare Bert Sutcliffe Retirement Village in Birkenhead. There is an estimated 90 percent probability that in 2048 there will be between 1.36 and 1.51 million people over the age of 65 in New Zealand.
By 2073, there was about a one in four chance that annual births would exceed 79,000, and a similar chance that they would have fewer than 48,000.
The number of children ages 0 to 14 had reached 940,000 in 1974, dropped steadily to 770,000 in 1989, and then rebounded to 970,000 in 2020, Stats NZ said.
Its median projection puts the number of children at 918,000 in the mid-2030s.
Throughout the projection period, Stats NZ uses an average total fertility rate of 1.65 births per woman, but with a very high fertility of 2.3 births per woman, the population would reach 7 million by the middle of the decade. 2050 and 8 million at the end of 2060..
According to that projection, 115,000 children would be born in New Zealand in 2073, compared with 63,000 according to the median projection.
Stats NZ is more confident in its projections of deaths going forward.
Of the 34,000 deaths in 2020, annual deaths were likely to exceed 40,000 in the early 2030s and exceed 50,000 in the early 2040s, Stats NZ said.
Since deaths increase faster than births, the annual natural increase (births minus deaths) is likely to decrease.
Out of 26,000 in 2020, there was about a three in four chance that the annual natural increase would be less than 20,000 by the end of the 2030s. By 2045, there was about a one in four chance of a natural decline – more deaths than births. .
By 2030, between 19% and 21% of New Zealanders were expected to be over 65, up from 16% in 2020, Stats NZ said. By 2048, the proportion was expected to reach 21-26% and 24-34% by 2073.
