Weather: a tropical cyclone may hit New Zealand a few days before Christmas

Plans for a Christmas Barbie may need to change as a tropical cyclone may be on the way.

Weather authorities say computer modeling in recent days has shown signs of a tropical cyclone threatening New Zealand in less than two weeks, and about a week from the big day itself.

WeatherWatch analysts say it is still “very early”, but computer modeling was one the authority trusted.

“Modeling over several days has pointed to a tropical cyclone that will form around Vanuatu to the Fiji area next week and move east to west, north of the Tasman Sea and the New Caledonia area,” says a release.

“Over the next week, we will continue to monitor the models and track this potential storm.”

WeatherWatch said that with the La Niña (dry) weather system, it was only a matter of time before a cyclone developed north of the country, in the southwestern Pacific tropics.

Despite the potential threat of a cyclone buffering things before Christmas Day, meteorological experts say a large high pressure system is expected over New Zealand around the same time as the cyclone develops.

WeatherWatch says it’s “powerful and protective” high pressure that can control whether or not tropical lows hit here.

“The question may be more about what happens to New Zealand towards the end of the third week of December and the beginning of the fourth week, before Christmas, as this great high moves further east.

“It appears that this height over New Zealand may be the likely controlling factor for any tropical lows that come our way.”