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Wet weather is at stake for most of the country this week, but the central North Island will bear the brunt.
“Basically, no matter where you are in New Zealand, unfortunately it’s going to rain a little bit and some wind,” MetService meteorologist Tui McInnes said Monday.
A rapid low, traveling from the coast of Australia and through Tasmania, will bring heavy rain to the central North Island starting Wednesday. Fronts associated with the downside will make landfall on Tuesday.
The heaviest rain will fall between Taranaki and the Eastern Cape. There are heavy rain alerts for Bay of Plenty, west of Whakatāne, from 3 p.m. Tuesday to 6 p.m. Wednesday, and Taranaki, north of Eltham, from 10 p.m. Tuesday to 10 a.m. Wednesday.
ANDY JACKSON / Stuff
Most of the country will experience humid weather throughout the week.
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Most areas north of Canterbury will get wet and experience hurricane force winds. Christchurch, Wellington and Auckland all have rain forecast starting Tuesday.
Modeling suggests that rains of more than 100 millimeters will fall in the central regions of the North Island over two days. However, that rain will fall in a short period of time.
“It is very likely that we will measure more than 100mm during this event,” he said. “[We might get] more rain … than models might think.
“[It is] there are likely to be more in some places, less in others. “
Predicting exactly how much rain would fall and whether it would amount to flooding was difficult to predict, McInnes said. Forecasters would have a better idea Tuesday, as the weather system neared landfall, if it required a heavy rain warning.
“As we get closer, we get more specific,” McInnes said. “Basses like this are always a bit tricky.”
The council’s hydrologists will use any potential warnings to model any possible flooding.
Heavy rain episodes are likely to be short-lived, due to the fast-moving nature of the system. McInnes explained that this system would be offshore at midnight Thursday, but another system moving towards the South Island would ensure the humid weather continues. The likes of Invercargill would be the most affected by the secondary system.
The approaching minimum cannot be compared to the weather event that caused widespread flooding in the Hawke’s Bay region earlier in the month. McInnes explained that the situation in Hawke’s Bay was quite unique and that the system was moving much slower.
Summer might be approaching, but the changing weather forecast for the week was a perfect representation of the nature of spring. “This whole week is just spring in a nutshell for New Zealand,” McInnes said.
“This stormy weather is still here for the next weekend.”
