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MARTIN DE RUYTER / Things
Monaco Peninsula during the 2018 former Cyclone Fehi weather event. On Wednesday, Nelson City Council released coastal flood maps, forecasting that large areas of the city may be affected by the worst-case scenario of rising sea levels and storm surge scenarios.
About 4,500 homeowners in Nelson are told that their land is at risk of possible flooding from rising sea levels and other coastal hazards.
Nelson City Council is sending letters to landowners on the back of the new coastal flood maps, showing that swaths of downtown Nelson and the coastal suburbs will flood in worst-case scenarios.
The interactive maps, posted on the council’s website shape.nelson.govt.nz, show how low-lying areas can be affected by scenarios of sea level rise in half-meter increments, from 0.5 meters to 2 meters.
The worst affected areas are parts of the city center, The Wood, Tāhunanui and Monaco.
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A “bathtub model” has been used to show the possible effects of seawater flooding the land, either occasionally, due to storm surge, or regularly, due to high tides.
Users can search for an address or zoom in on maps and choose a sea level rise scenario.
Nelson City Hall / Supplied
Flooding from tides and storms could occur with a sea level rise of 1.5m, according to maps released by Nelson City Council on Wednesday.
Mayor Rachel Reese said people should look to maps as a starting point to find out more about how their property, or the places they value, could be affected at different sea levels.
However, no one had a crystal ball, he said.
“What I can’t do is give anyone a guarantee today on what is really going to happen.”
In its letter, the council says that the landlord’s property has been identified within the affected areas and that the council must include the information in the property’s file.
Coastal flood risk mapping is a government requirement. The maps show a variety of possible scenarios and time frames based on data from Niwa (National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research).
Katy Jones / Stuff
Erosion on Nelson’s Tāhunanui Beach in August 2020, one day before spring high tide.
The council wanted to work with the community and put energy into a “positive and resilient future,” Reese said.
Feedback will be sought until December 18 on what community members think should be done.
CEO Pat Dougherty outlined a series of questions related to the possible answer.
“Do we defend ourselves? We are leaving? Do we make a mixture of both and if we defend, for how long do we defend?
“What kind of sea level rise did we decide we can’t defend further … what do we protect and who is going to pay?”
Sven Martin / Supplied
Former Cyclone Fehi struck the northern suburb of Glenduan in Nelson in February 2018, flooding several houses, knocking down power poles and washing away parts of the waterfront highway. A $ 1.4 million sloped rock wall (a “liner”) is being built along the beach to protect the road from a 5-10 year storm.
In the worst case scenario according to the predictions, there could be a 1 meter sea level rise by 2100, but if carbon emissions are reduced, it could be beyond 2200, he said.
“So we can take two or three years to have that conversation with the community and understand what they want us to do, and we also all figure out what is reasonable, what is affordable and what is practical.
“There is a call to arms here in terms that the more effective we are in reducing our carbon emissions, the slower the rise in sea levels.”
Martin De Ruyter / Things
A 4.3 meter high tide at Martin St, Monaco, Nelson, in August.
The release of the Nelson City Council maps comes more than a year after the Tasmania District Council released coastal hazard maps for the area under its management.
Reese said the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted the work schedule around the completion and release of the Nelson City Council maps.
Environment and climate committee chair Kate Fulton said one of the positives of the Covid pandemic was that it demonstrated “how quickly we can change.”
Climate change was “urgent and significant”.
“We need to treat it the same way that we treat the Covid pandemic,” Fulton said.
The new model was based on a coastal flood report provided to the council by engineering firm Tonkin and Taylor, which was viewable at shape.nelson.govt.nz/coastal-hazards.
More coastal erosion and modeling work will be completed in early 2021.
* The council will hold walk-in sessions to answer questions about the flood maps on November 24 from 4.30 to 7.30 p.m., at the Greenmeadows Center in Stoke, and on November 26, from 4 pm to 6:30 pm, at Trafalgar Park Pavilion.
