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The apocalyptic predictions, of uncontrolled global warming after 2150, in an international climate study should be taken with caution, the Kiwi researchers warn.
The new research, published in the journal Scientific reports, predicts that decades after humans said goodbye to fossil fuels, the climate could enter a vicious, self-perpetuating cycle of warming. The only man-made solution is to extract massive amounts of carbon from the air and store it, the authors conclude.
The model used to make these dire predictions is simple, the researchers admit. The latest generation, such as those used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), do not come to the same conclusions, said University of Canterbury climate researcher Laura Revell.
These state-of-the-art climate models are very complex, he said. “We have [one] installed on supercomputers here in New Zealand and it still takes a couple of months to run a 100-year simulation. “
By comparison, less complex models, like the one in the study, can run on a desktop in a few seconds, he said. “It’s just a model and it’s a very simple model.”
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The just published study outlined the basic model projections of how melting polar ice, water vapor, and methane trapped in frozen land would influence each other, up to the year 2500.
Norwegian researchers believe that the world will peak greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and only achieve zero carbon emissions by 2100, so we will not meet our goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
If that works, your model projects that global temperatures will peak around 2075, drop slightly, and then start rising again from 2150.
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An icy lake in Siberia contains bubbles of methane within its ice. As the earth warms, frozen methane can be released.
This prediction is based on a continuous loss of polar ice between now and 2500. Ice plays a key role in keeping our planet’s climate stable: being white, it returns sunlight to space. Darker ocean waters absorb much more heat. From there, the humidity rises and the frozen tundra (or permafrost) landscapes near the poles melt. Both would increase global temperatures in a self-perpetuating cycle, even without man-made emissions.
In particular, the model also predicts that a similar vicious cycle would ensue even if we cut all greenhouse emissions today.
However, the strongest predictions of the weather our great-grandchildren will face will be released next year, when the IPCC is expected to release its latest report, Revell said.
“That’s when next-generation ground system models are running in the future in different greenhouse gas scenarios.”
Revell discourages any panic about the new study’s predictions. “I really don’t believe in the pessimism of this study.”
Nor does he agree with the idea that past a certain point, climate action becomes useless. “Any positive action we take today will have a positive implication for us in the future … It never makes sense to give up.”
University of Victoria climate scientist James Renwick agrees that the findings are out of step with other projections. “The results presented in this document are highly implausible and should not be viewed as a cause for alarm.”
If the world successfully limits global warming to below 2 ° C, the scientific consensus suggests that we will see some impacts. “But there are no signs of any form of runaway climate change.”
In the study, the researchers use their predictions to emphasize the need for global action. Research co-author Jorgen Randers said humanity must do two things: rapidly decarbonize, and capture and store large amounts of carbon from the air.
The model suggests that we would have to absorb at least 33 gigatons, or 33 billion tons, of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere each year.
Randers invites other researchers with access to complex climate models to test the study’s predictions, noting: “Their models are much larger than ours and can reveal opposing forces that can stop the melting we observe.”
Randers agreed that people should not lose hope. “We must reduce the use of fossil fuels as quickly as possible and start preparing for the large-scale capture of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.”
