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New Zealand will benefit from Joe Biden’s presidency, but such a shift in US leadership could further challenge relations with China and the Pacific countries.
Presidential candidate Biden appeared to be heading for victory in Thursday morning’s US elections. The Democrat was closing in on a victory in key states, but incumbent President Donald Trump vowed to challenge the final vote count in court.
At a party at the US embassy in Wellington on Wednesday afternoon, Ambassador Scott Brown said the relationship between New Zealand and the United States was unlikely to be affected “at all” by the outcome.
Carolyn Kaster / AP
Democratic presidential candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden has said he is heading to the White House.
But foreign policy experts say that Biden would turn the United States back to international organizations, possibly join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade agreement, and likely push New Zealand to be more strident against the superpower’s enemy: China.
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Massey University professor Rouben Azizian, director of the university’s center for defense and security studies, said Brown was saying “what any ambassador will say.”
“New Zealand was trying its best to maintain a good relationship with the United States, but it was very difficult,” he said of the relationship under the Trump administration.
Azizian said that Trump withdrew and effectively killing the TPP before it started was “a significant blow to New Zealand’s national interests.
Covid-19 had exacerbated the tension, as New Zealand’s handling of the virus made it the target of sarcastic comments from Trump.
He said there was some tension between Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and former Foreign Minister Winston Peters’s opinion on the United States: Peters sympathized more with Trump than with Ardern.
A possible Biden presidency “would eliminate some of these challenges. It will be a government of the left, like Labor, here. Biden will be a stabilizer [force] to US foreign policy, less to this erratic foreign policy of social media, “said Azizian.
Evan Vucci / AP
President Donald Trump has also won the election and has baselessly alleged that electoral fraud has taken place.
Dr. Anna Powles, senior professor of security studies at Massey University, said that under Biden’s presidency, there would likely be more pressure on New Zealand to align with the United States’ position on China in the Pacific.
Biden is likely to take a more consistent foreign policy approach than Trump, and with the US focus on the Pacific, called the “Pacific Compromise,” this could lead to more requests to New Zealand.
“That, obviously, is a concern about how it plays out in the Pacific … There is already increasing pressure on New Zealand to align its policies on China with those of the United States … More pressure, more competitive questions on New Zealand “Powles said.
This could complicate New Zealand’s relations with Pacific Island nations that weren’t as keen to counter China’s influence in the Pacific.
But a renewed focus on climate change policy that could come under Biden would be “really good,” and it would be welcome in the Pacific.
Trade expert Charles Finny, a former diplomat, said he had met with Biden when the vice president visited New Zealand four years ago, and had very positive views on New Zealand.
“President Trump also has very positive views on New Zealanders, I think because of golf, but also because he had a good trip to New Zealand several years ago.”
Even if Biden wins, his administration would not take power until January, and in the meantime Trump would continue to play tough on issues like the United States’ veto of a candidate for director-general of the World Trade Organization (WTO) that was supported by the majority. . other countries.
Such actions were important to New Zealand, which as a small nation relies on the WTO to uphold the rules of international trade.
Biden would be more predictable and willing to be a part of these international processes, Finny said, and he had supported the TPP.
But if Biden, as president, could get the United States to sign the TPP, he could rely on the US Senate, which would likely be led by Republicans after the election and could act as a “hand brake” on any reform.
