US Elections: What Happens If Donald Trump and Joe Biden Tie in Votes?

ANALYSIS

The 2016 presidential campaign taught the world one thing: Opinion polls cannot be trusted.

The demographics have changed. Communications have changed. The policy has changed. The electoral system has not.

The polls weren’t entirely wrong: Candidate Hillary Clinton won the majority of the popular vote of a single value vote (by a margin of 2.1 percent or 2.9 million votes). But, under the electoral system in the United States, that doesn’t matter.

It is about earning the necessary amount of “points” assigned by an Electoral College system. And that means securing some key cities and suburbs.

Only eight of the 50 states of the Union had the future of the nation in their hands.

Arizona. Florida. Georgia. Michigan. Minnesota. North Carolina. Pennsylvania. Wisconsin.

Even among this core group, one vote in Florida or Pennsylvania counts more than others.

As the count is at the moment, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Georgia are too close to call and we may not get a result tonight.

Now there is the possibility of a tie in the Electoral College from 269 to 269.

What the polls say

With voting now closed in the US, people are now anxiously awaiting results in Nevada, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Wisconsin to determine whether Trump will remain in power.

According to polls, the president leads Biden 57-42 in Pennsylvania; 53-45 in Michigan; 51-47 in Wisconsin; 51-48 in Georgia; 50-48 in North Carolina and 52-45 in Maine’s second congressional district.

Biden, meanwhile, has a 51-46 lead in Nevada; 52-46 lead in Arizona and 51-49 in Maine.

What if it’s a tie

Suppose the popular vote is split 50/50 between Trump and Biden. In that case, the US National Academy of Sciences says Trump has an 88 percent chance of winning the presidency. If Biden wins 52%, Trump is almost certain to keep his job. But if Biden gets 53 percent, then the United States will face a bitterly contested presidential fight.

“If (Trump) fails to replicate his 2016 performance, the country could be plunged into a dangerous political and legal struggle combining the worst features of 2000 and 1876,” says US governance analyst William Galston of the Brookings Institution.

Analyst Elaine Kamarck, also of the nonpartisan think tank Brookings Institution, says the US Constitution anticipated a tied vote. It just didn’t predict the partisan state of American politics.

“If there is no winner in the Electoral College, Article 2, Section 1, Clause 3 states that the decision goes to the House of Representatives while the Senate elects the vice president,” Kamarck writes. “But the vote in the House is different from the vote in the Senate.”

The United States Senate can vote for a vice president. Each senator receives one vote.

The House of Representatives can vote for the president. But regardless of the size of each state represented, each state gets only one combined vote. And a president only needs 26 votes to win.

“If the presidential race were to end in the House, the outcome would depend on which party controls the state delegation,” says Kamarck.

Currently, the Republican Party dominates 26 delegations. Democrats are 23.

“But Congress will be sworn in before the Electoral College votes are read in the Senate. In the event of a tie, it will be the next Congress, not the current one, that votes on the presidency.”

But we are in 2020. If things can get complicated, they will.

Two states are balanced between Republican and Democratic control. That means that a delegation tie is also a different possibility.

“A handful of 2020 congressional elections could decide the presidential election,” says Kamarck.

Nightmare scenario

According to the Brookings Institution, Pennsylvania and Florida could end up having a decisive voice in who will be the next president. Specifically, Florida’s 10th and 15th constituencies.

They are both very controversial. The result of both will determine how your entire state is tilted.

Pennsylvania’s 10th Place: “The district has a PVI score of +6 Republican, which means that in recent elections it tends to vote Republican. But recent polls suggest a neck-and-neck race,” says Kamarck.

Florida’s 15th: “Like Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District, Florida’s 15th tends to be Republican. But (Democrat) Cohn is a little behind (Republican) Franklin and within the margin of error.”

If the Democrats win both, the vote of the state House delegates will be divided 25-25.

Combine that with an Electoral College tie of 269-269, and you’ve got … a constitutional crisis.

“What if a tied race in the Electoral College results in a tied race in the House of Representatives?” Kamarck asks. “The House continues to vote until someone gets 26 votes. If the House cannot elect a president on Inauguration Day, the person chosen as vice president by the Senate becomes interim president until the House selects a president.”

Galston points to a controversial history as an indicator of the future if this scenario plays out.

“In this case, the state that most observers believe has the greatest potential for election delays and mail-in ballot counting problems would determine the outcome of the contest (Pennsylvania). This would ensure a repeat of the controversy from Florida in 2000 that ended Bush against Gore, but with a much higher level of partisan polarization, more intense divisions over the legitimacy of the Supreme Court and greater threats of civil disorder. “

Against all odds

“The 2016 elections were an invigorating reminder that the presidency is won or lost in the states and not in the national popular vote,” says Galston. “Can (Trump) repeat this feat in 2020? Yes. Can he do it if he loses the national popular vote by a greater margin than four years ago? Probably not.”

And there are four other races adjusted for seats in Congress: two in Iowa and another two in Minnesota. Changes in any of these will also upset the balance of the equation.

This means that a tie is unlikely for both the presidential race and the representative delegate vote. However, it is a disturbing possibility.

“While it may not reach the level of rancor after the disputed 1876 election, when the post-Civil War Reconstruction era came to a bitter end, it could make the disputed 2000 election seem boring by comparison.” Galston concludes.

With partisan politics threatening to wreck American politics, the implications of America’s lopsided voting system must be anticipated – it could turn to the advantage of either contender.

“These scenarios are worth reflecting on, if only for the fact that they point to how the small-state policy that prompted negotiations at the Constitutional Convention in 1787 does not meet the needs of the United States in 2020,” Kamarck concludes. “In the 21st century we have had two elections where the winner of the popular vote did not reach the presidency because of the Electoral College. Perhaps it is time to leave the Electoral College once and for all before getting into another mess.”

• Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer