2020 US Presidential Election: Today’s Four Possible Scenarios

Biden gets over it

If Joe Biden wins by a small margin, the result will probably not be known on election night. This election is different because of the scale of early voting, by mail and in person, which has been supercharged by the pandemic.

In some key states, officials will not start counting the massive “early vote” until Election Day. One of Pennsylvania’s key counties, perhaps the most important state, won’t even start counting the first ballots until November 4.

Another Pennsylvania county says it could take them a week to count because they’ve never dealt with so many before. Additionally, in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, delayed postal ballots that arrive several days late can still be counted.

If Biden’s lead is limited, you may have to wait days for it to be confirmed. Pollsters say you don’t even have to be that close for this scenario to play out.

They calculate that if Biden is ahead two, three or even four points in the popular vote nationwide, then the first ballots cast in states like Pennsylvania might still be needed to determine who has won the Electoral College and the presidency.

Too close to the call

If he’s around, Donald Trump or Joe Biden will start asking for re-counts in key states.

The lawyers will then get involved as each side disputes which votes should or should not be counted.

In the most famous case of its kind, George W. Bush and Al Gore fought over “hanging chads,” the holes made in Florida’s ballot papers after the tight 2000 presidential election.

This time, with so many voters using postal ballots for the first time, the battle could be over something to do with them.

In addition, if the result is based on Pennsylvania, the US Supreme Court has left open the possibility to rule in the days after the election on whether the state can accept postal ballots three days late.

Overriding that would favor Trump, as Democrats are more likely to vote by mail. Republican and Democratic lawyers have already filed hundreds of legal cases on election proceedings.

Whatever cases make it to the Supreme Court, Trump would have the upper hand, having appointed three of the justices. The court has a conservative majority of 6-3.

Meanwhile, US stores are shipping in case no results lead to civil unrest.

Biden’s landslide

Florida, one of the key states, is already counting votes cast early. That means the Sunshine State is expected to provide a result on Election Night, perhaps a few hours after the polls close.

It will give everyone, including Trump and Biden, an early indication of how things are going. The electoral map is such that it is, not impossible, but highly unlikely, that Trump can win the Electoral College without occupying Florida.

As Biden recently said: “If Florida turns blue, it’s over.” In 2016, Trump narrowly won Florida and his 29 Electoral College votes. A quick win there for Biden, particularly if it’s by a clear margin, would indicate a possible landslide.

Texas, which has had unprecedented early voting, is also poised for those ballots – and those cast on Election Day – to be counted in a matter of hours. If Biden wins the Republican stronghold of Texas, then a landslide is highly possible.

Election observers consider a landslide to be a victory of more than 10% in the popular vote or an overwhelming majority in the Electoral College. A Biden landslide would leave Trump with no options to challenge the outcome in court.

Trump wins

Look for the “red mirage”. In this scenario, states that declare Election Day results first may show Trump to the upper hand, as Republicans are more likely to vote in person on that day. As the postal ballots are counted, Biden is expected to catch up.

However, if Trump has a large head start, he may well be tempted to declare victory early, while also criticizing the legitimacy of postal ballots. Since he is far behind in the polls, a Trump victory would likely be narrow, and ultimately he might have to wait weeks for each state to certify their results for his victory to be confirmed.

Trump’s campaign has played numerous scenarios involving different states to get him to the Electoral College’s 270-vote winning line but ultimately they know he can’t do it without Pennsylvania, and he will campaign there the day before the election.

An average of national polls has Biden eight points ahead. If Trump wins, the polls will be more wrong than ever.