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United States President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden each have a path to the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House. Biden’s is appreciably wider.
The former vice president is competitive in every battlefield state Trump led in 2016 and has brought a handful of traditional Republican states into play, including Georgia and Arizona.
Alex Brandon / AP
US President Donald Trump greets an overflowing crowd before speaking at a campaign rally at Rochester International Airport.
That has Trump fighting to defend a wide swath of territory and pinning the incumbent’s re-election hopes to two of the most populous swing states, Florida and Pennsylvania.
A look at the most likely paths to victory:
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BIDEN
True north
Biden can easily win an electoral majority by taking him to the three states where Trump surprised Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Those states were approved by Democrats for decades prior to 2016. They would give Biden 279 electoral votes, provided he wins every other state in the Clinton column. Under this scenario, Biden would not need to win any other states that Trump won in 2016.
The three northern industrial states have been Biden’s clearest target for advertising dollars. It spent nearly $ 150 million (NZ $ 225 million), 30 percent of its total national ad spending since June, on all three, according to the Kantar / CMAG review for The Associated Press.
The fiercest fighting between the three is in Pennsylvania. Biden has had a slight lead in most polls, with some suggesting that Trump remains a surprising distance. Biden, who was born in Scranton, claims favorite son status in the state. Trump’s hopes have been boosted by Biden’s recent call to phase out fossil fuels, although Biden has said he would not ban fracking.
Andrew Harnik / AP
Supporters listen as Democratic presidential candidate, former Vice President Joe Biden, speaks at a rally at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines, Iowa.
South by southwest
If Biden loses Pennsylvania, he would have to find 11 electoral votes elsewhere.
Arizona, once a trusted Republican, offering exactly 11, and North Carolina, with 15, are states that Trump won four years ago and within reach of Biden.
Democrats are particularly optimistic about Arizona, the last time a Democrat carried it out in 1996. Trump won the state in 2016 by 3.5 percentage points, the smallest margin in 20 years, and this year, the Democratic candidate for Senate, former astronaut Mark Kelly, is running. a strong career.
The Arizona alternative assumes, as do most of Biden’s roads, that Nevada also wins, which was last run by a Republican in 2004. Trump has campaigned in the state, though Democrats say they are comfortable with your prospects there.
The race for North Carolina seems tighter, but there is recent precedent for a Democrat dominating the state. In 2008, Barack Obama was the first Democrat to take it in 32 years. Though he narrowly lost there in 2012, much like Clinton in 2016, waves of college-educated newcomers are swelling his booming suburbs, a boost for Biden’s chances.
Andrew Harnik / AP
The US Democratic presidential candidate, former Vice President Joe Biden, dons a mask during a rally at the Minnesota State Fairgrounds.
The rest is extra
There is another scenario for Biden: a more comfortable Electoral College victory.
If Biden wins Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and Arizona and North Carolina, he would get at least 290 electoral votes.
It also competes for Ohio, which Trump won by 8 percentage points in 2016; Iowa, which Trump won by nearly 10 percentage points; and Georgia, which Trump surpassed by 5 percentage points. Victories in those states would push Biden’s electoral total above 300.
Biden made two stops in Georgia last week and had his first fall campaign visit to Iowa on Friday. He has spent nearly $ 5 million (NZ $ 7.5 million) but has not visited Iowa since the state caucuses in February. Biden has campaigned lightly in Ohio, but has spent nearly $ 7 million (NZ $ 10.5 million) on advertising. Polls and operatives on both sides said the two states were very close heading into the final weekend of the campaign.
Oh, and do you remember Florida? The perennial battlefield offers 29 electoral votes and, as usual, is very close.
There’s one more grand prize on the table: Texas. Democrats have been eyeing the state for years, but this is the first year in decades that it can really be within the party’s grasp.
The state’s new battleground status highlights not only Trump’s struggles in the suburbs, which are booming outside of Texas’s major cities, but also his weaknesses in nearly every state with a diverse electorate.
“Biden has a better chance of winning by a larger electoral number than Trump,” said Republican pollster Glen Bolger, who is polling in various battle states but not for the Trump campaign. “It does not mean that Trump cannot win.”
Rebecca Blackwell / AP
Supporters of US President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden (in hiding) wave flags and deliver information to voters arriving outside of an early voting station in West Palm Beach.
TRIUMPH
Florida or bust
Trump almost certainly cannot reach 270 electoral votes without taking to Florida, where polls show a close race. Some have suggested a slight advantage from Biden.
Trump’s rally Thursday in Florida was his third campaign trip to the state this month, underscoring why Florida is so important to his re-election. He plans to return before Tuesday’s election.
His stop Thursday was in Hillsborough County, where Clinton beat him by 41,000 votes. Hillsborough is adjacent to and shares a media market with Pinellas County, the most populous county in the state that went from Democrat in 2012 to Republican in 2016.
Trump won some counties in the surrounding area by more than 60 percent of the vote, and his campaign hopes he can raise the score further with newer and less regular voters in these places.
Trump planned to accompany first lady Melania Trump when she voted Tuesday (local time) near Palm Beach County. The Trumps moved their residence from reliably Democratic New York to Florida last year.
Bruce Kluckhohn / AP
US President Donald Trump greets supporters after speaking at a campaign rally.
Pennsylvania Avenue
Even if Trump catches Florida and keeps the battlefields he won in the South and Southwest, he would still be 270 electoral votes short.
The president is betting a lot on Pennsylvania as the best chance to move within striking distance of that threshold. After a trio of demonstrations last week, Trump was scheduled to hold four more in the state on Saturday.
It has been making stops all over Pennsylvania, from counties outside of Philadelphia, the largest metropolitan area, to the rural northwest corner of the state.
Among your next stops: Bucks County. It was once the most Republican suburb in Philadelphia, but it has had a Democratic lean and is an example of the obstacles Trump faces. It lost the county by less than 2 percentage points in 2016 and has seen its position in the suburbs steadily erode ever since.
Trump’s argument to Pennsylvania voters was resumed after Biden, during his Oct. 22 debate, called for the phasing out of fossil fuels. That created an opportunity for Trump in a state with a strong natural gas industry.
“Biden’s plan to abolish the entire US oil industry, did you see it?” Trump pointed out at a rally last week in Lansing, Michigan, recalling Biden’s call for the gradual introduction of renewable fuels and the phase-out of fossil fuels over time. “It will paralyze our nation and send us into a deep, utter depression.”
Bruce Kluckhohn / AP
Supporters wait outside the airport before US President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally.
The rest is not the best
Even if Trump wins Florida and Pennsylvania, he would still be below the magic number if he can’t carry most of the states he won in 2016.
It could get ahead of Ohio, one of its strongest states for a long time, but it would still have to improvise a number of states it won in 2016, like Iowa, and some that it narrowly lost and still lags behind.
That trickier path would include flipping Minnesota, Nevada and New Hampshire. That, however, would challenge the political logic of a starter losing in spots won four years ago and winning in spots lost then.
Holding on to as many votes as he can, Trump has even campaigned in Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are cast by the congressional district and the overall state winner. A week ago, Trump was in Levant, Maine, near the center of the north-leaning state Republican Party, Bangor, hoping to hold the single electoral vote in his second ward, and in Omaha, Nebraska, on Tuesday , with the hope of holding the electoral vote of that metropolitan district. single vote.
