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ANALYSIS: After two weeks of political stalemate, it is a turning point for thousands of people who have spent years trying to change the country.
Preliminary results of the two referendums will be released at 2:00 p.m. and Labor is expected to conclude their talks with the Greens before forming a new government.
It should be clear, save for a small margin in the referendum votes, whether New Zealand has voted to allow terminally ill people to end their own lives and whether or not to legalize cannabis use.
Joe Johnson / Stuff
Jacinda Ardern seeks to conclude talks with the Greens before forming a government.
ACT’s David Seymour, who has fought for his End of Life Choice bill for half a decade, will be in the House of Parliament to see the results in front of the cameras. Polls suggest that you are going to have a very good day. This is not expected to be such a stellar day for cannabis legalization advocates like Green MP Chlöe Swarbrick, who will be watching the results from home.
READ MORE:
* Referendum on Euthanasia: How will the Election of the End of Life Act work if it is passed?
* Election 2020: What influence could special votes have on cannabis and euthanasia referenda?
* Yes or no? What happens after the results of the referendum on cannabis come out?
* Marama Davidson hints at a ministerial role if the Greens return to power
On the ninth floor of the Beehive, a small group of people will finish their talks on how to run the country for the next three years.
Labor and the Greens will conclude their talks on how and if they will cooperate in government, and the Green co-leaders will bring the finalized agreement to 150 delegates for ratification over the weekend. They will only have one chance. If they reject the deal, Labor will not restart the talks.
“For a good process, which our party really values, we want the members to make the final decision,” Green’s co-leader Marama Davidson told reporters yesterday, admitting that a leak of those members was possible.
Labor has nearly all the cards, with a 64-seat majority following a landslide electoral victory. But leader Jacinda Ardern has been talking about talent in the Green Party, suggesting that she will want to give some of her ministerial portfolios to MPs and that she could mitigate some criticism from her left by doing so.
His old friend James Shaw seems like a safe bet to keep his role as Climate Change Minister, but Green Party members will want more than just a few jobs. A statement from his office suggested that a “text,” presumably a list of both parties’ commitments to policies and roles, was nearing completion Thursday.
123RF
The preliminary results of the euthanasia referendum are about to be revealed.
The negotiating table includes Ardern, Shaw, Davidson, Finance Minister and de facto Deputy Labor leader Grant Robertson, and party chiefs of staff. A Labor staff member, Holly Donald, has excellent green credentials as the daughter of former leader Rod Donald and a longtime staff member.
Public servants are also available as an ad-hoc research unit, capable of answering questions about how much different policies might cost or how difficult it would be to implement them.
Across Wellington, thousands of bureaucrats have been working since August on detailed reports to give to the new government, even if many of the ministers are exactly the same.
An employee in the bowels of the Prime Minister’s Department and the Cabinet put together a 40-page “manifesto tracker” throughout the campaign so that bureaucrats know exactly what each party wants to do.
Ardern is also expected to finally reveal how he voted on cannabis after the results are released. If legalization wins the polls and wins, your government will have the immediate task of getting the legalization bill through Parliament. If the End of Life Choice wins, it will automatically go into effect in October of next year.
Six floors down, a weakened Nacional will be figuring out how to respond to the results of the referendum and eventually the new government. But it will have much less experience available to do this: the party won 21 fewer seats in the 2020 elections, which means it gets much less parliamentary money.
Richard Vogel / AP
Ardern is expected to reveal how he voted in the cannabis referendum.
National has had to lay off 17 members of the parliamentary staff since the election, reducing its press team to just two employees, compared to hundreds of specialists in the general government.
However, leader Judith Collins already has a line ready to enter the Green Party deal.
“I’ve always said that Labor wanted the Greens in government, so they could blame them for everything they did that upset the population. If they hadn’t made a deal, they would have finished eating the chocolate chip cookies by now, ”Collins said Thursday.
Once the Green Party accepts or rejects the deal, Ardern will begin the complicated task of delegating ministerial portfolios, rewarding competition without insulting anyone else’s expertise. Despite a string of high-flying newcomers in this election, anyone new to Parliament is unlikely to get an immediate seat around the cabinet table.
Collins will then have to organize a shadow cabinet, placing ambitious MPs like Simon Bridges, Christopher Luxon and Mark Mitchell in positions that keep them busy and happy without threatening their own jobs. He’s likely to keep that job in the next confidence vote after the final election results, but his deputy Gerry Brownlee’s grip on his role seems anything but secure.
Don’t expect any of them to relax on the weekend.
