‘Potential for staggering levels of death’: Russia prepares for war in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, warns veteran diplomat

A regional conflict is rapidly reaching an “irreversible point” where major military powers, including Russia, will be absorbed, which will almost certainly lead to even more bloodshed, a veteran diplomat warned.

Up to 5,000 people are believed to have perished in four weeks of fighting between the Central Asian nations of Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Which country owns a thin strip of land could be all that stops the battle from turning into a much larger war. Now Moscow is reported to have made its first clear move by choosing a side.

The two rebellious neighbors are in a deadly dispute centered in the mountainous Nagorno-Karabakh region. It is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but has been ruled for decades by ethnic Armenians.

The armed conflict erupted in late September after Azerbaijan, believed to be backed with weapons and manpower from Turkey, began bombing the disputed territory in an effort to regain it.

Since then, both sides have been accused of bombing positions and cities on the other side of the front line.

Diplomatic efforts, so far, have been unsuccessful.

A Russian-brokered ceasefire was broken in one day; Another deal to lower the weapons collapsed in a matter of hours; Last week, a US-backed deal to stop the fighting lasted only a few minutes.

Carey Cavanaugh is a former US ambassador who led the peace efforts in 2001 over the exact same intractable dispute. He said that if the current talks involving Turkey, Russia, the United States and France fail to achieve real results, the fighting will almost certainly escalate.

“Outside nations, specifically Turkey and Russia, can enter the fray,” he wrote in an article for the Financial Times.

“The result would be a potentially staggering level of death, destruction and suffering.”

Iran, which borders both warring nations, has already warned that if more projectiles inadvertently land on its territory, it will be forced to get involved.

Historically, both the Armenian Christians and the Turkish Muslims of Azerbaijan called Nagorno-Karabakh home.

However, since a war in the 1990s that killed 30,000, most of the area has been populated and ruled by ethnic Armenians who call it the Republic of Artsakh.

Not a single nation recognizes Artsakh, not even Armenia, but it has the support of the Armenian government.

For decades, an uneasy truce prevailed. But not anymore.

Cavanaugh has said that the key reason the conflict has flared up once again is Turkey’s backing for Azerbaijan. His weapons have helped him recover some land.

“This external support and relative military success has generated broad public support in Azerbaijan for the war effort.”

SPIRAL OUT OF CONTROL

On Wednesday, Azerbaijan accused Armenia of killing 21 people and wounding dozens in a missile strike near the border, the deadliest reported attack against civilians in a month of fighting over the disputed region.

Armenia has denied carrying out the attack, the second in two days that Azerbaijan says killed civilians in the Barda district.

Yerevan, in turn, has accused Azerbaijani forces of new deadly attacks on civilian areas in the disputed region, as both sides claim the other is targeting civilians after weeks of fierce fighting at the front, the agency reported. AFP news.

The International Committee of the Red Cross said the bombing of urban areas was “appalling”.

“These latest exchanges indicate that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is at risk of spiraling out of control,” said ICRC regional director Martin Schüepp.

THE RUSSIAN MOVEMENT IN A THIN EARTH

There is growing fear about what could happen if Azerbaijani forces invaded a thin strip of land known as the Lachin corridor.

The pass links Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia proper and is a crucial supply line for everything from food to weapons.

Azerbaijani forces are reported to be closing in on the strip.

“If this corridor is cut, the conflict will be on the brink of a humanitarian disaster,” said Cavanaugh, who is a professor of diplomacy at the University of Kentucky.

It could lead to the ethnic Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh being trapped and would likely force Armenia to accelerate its military response.

“This could lead Moscow to act in accordance with its mutual defense pact with Armenia, which in turn could lead to the entry of the Turkish army.”

Russia had previously stood on the sidelines, apparently reluctant to take sides between two nations that were once part of the USSR.

Russian President Vladimir Putin had said that his defense agreement with Armenia would only come into effect if the territory of that country was threatened. Since Armenia does not recognize Nagorno-Karabakh, it indicated that Moscow had no reason to intervene.

But it appears that Russia is now taking sides as the fighting draws closer to Armenia’s internationally recognized borders.

A Russian news photographer is reported to have seen a Russian camp set up in an Armenian village near the Lachin corridor. It is just a few tents and a Russian flag, but it is a powerful signal for Azerbaijani forces to move closer so that they do not block the way, the central Asian news service Eurasianet reported. Moscow is also believed to be supplying weapons to Yerevan.

MEANINGLESS MEETINGS

The general situation is not helped by the fact that the United States is distracted by the election campaign and France and Turkey in a war of words over the treatment of Muslims after the beheading of a teacher in Paris in a terrorist attack.

Writing for the think tank of the Australian Institute for Strategic Policy earlier this month, international relations expert Mohammed Ayoob said there was an “alarming” prospect that the conflict would drag in regional superpowers.

“Turkey has traditionally been a strong supporter of Azerbaijan (while) Russia considers Armenia a strategic ally, but also considers Azerbaijan a strategic partner.

“Therefore, Russia will have a big problem on its hands if the conflict escalates.”

But that seems exactly what could happen.

On Tuesday, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev played down the prospect of a diplomatic solution.

“There have been a lot of pointless meetings in the last 28 years,” he said.

Armenia and Azerbaijan may be relatively small nations, but each has much larger friends and enemies, with plenty of firepower at its disposal.

There is the very real prospect that Russian and Turkish troops will face each other at the front.

“The risk of an expanded war is growing,” Cavanaugh said.

“The conflict may soon reach an irreversible point where it will not stop without a dramatic expansion of fighting and further loss of life.”