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If the past few months have been like a long-haul flight, Victorians are now standing in the corridors waiting for the cabin door to open, a little dazed and disoriented but relieved.
They have every right to be. No other place in the world has tamed such a large second wave. Few have even come close.
It is not a competition
Comparing the struggles of different countries against Covid-19 is not an easy exercise, given the differences in demographics, geography, health system capacity and government strategy.
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Asanka Ratnayake / Getty Images
Victoria’s Prime Minister Daniel Andrews speaks to the media after Victoria recorded no new Covid-19 cases or related deaths overnight, the first time the state has had zero cases since June.
Perhaps most importantly, not all countries have attempted to reduce community transmission to zero or almost zero. This may not have been a realistic goal for countries with less border control than Australia.
Furthermore, as the Victorians fully understand, the virus is unpredictable. Today, as the crisis accelerates in Europe and elsewhere, Victoria’s “zero new cases” are the envy of the world. But there can be no certainty about where things will be in a few months.
All of this is to say that a favorable international comparison should not encourage complacency. However, it is true that Victoria’s efforts are remarkable on the world stage.
The state’s success has avoided significant human cost and further economic damage. As a result, Australia has a much better chance of returning to an approach to “normal life” in the new year.
Victorians should be proud of these efforts, and the markedly different results in countries that were in a similar position should assure them that the efforts were worth it.
Asanka Ratnayake / Getty Images
No other place in the world has tamed such a large second wave of Covid-19.
Surfing the second wave: Victoria, Singapore, then by daylight
On 5 August, Victoria’s seven-day average of daily new cases reached 533, the worst number seen anywhere in Australia.
Several other countries had similar figures at the time, including Canada, Japan, Singapore, and most of Europe. They had taken different paths to get there; for Europe, these numbers represented a low ebb, not a peak. But the trajectories after this period diverged even more dramatically.
As the graph below shows, the number of cases in several European countries started to accelerate abruptly and is now much worse than ever. In contrast, Japan, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Singapore and Australia have so far kept the number of cases at a moderate level.
But as the graph below shows, there is significant divergence even among these relatively stable countries. Sweden appears to be on track to replicate the sharp acceleration seen in other parts of Europe.
In Denmark and Japan, the number of cases remains at a moderate level, but does not tend to zero. Only Victoria and Singapore, which peaked at around 300, are back in single digits.
By suppressing their second waves, Victoria and Singapore are in a good position to join a small club of countries that have experienced zero or almost zero cases, including New Zealand, Thailand, Vietnam, China and the rest of Australia.
The dividend for these countries has been economic, not only related to health, as the graph below shows.
Victoria’s confinement has been long and difficult, but now she occupies a strange and envious position. As Victorians await new freedoms in the next step toward Covid-normal, they must feel a sense of accomplishment.
– Stephen Duckett is director of the health program at Grattan Institute
– Tom Crowley is an associate at Grattan Institute
This article originally appeared on The Conversation.
