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The Green Party could be left looking for ways to maintain its influence in the next government after now Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern hinted that the party’s role in the next government could be seriously degraded.
After winning 64 seats, the only absolute majority in the history of the MMP, Labor does not need any parliamentary support to govern. Any presence in government would be an advantage for the Greens.
Ardern said Sunday that he had spoken with Green Party co-leader James Shaw and was also looking to speak with co-leader Marama Davidson. The Labor and Green offices also had calls scheduled for Sunday.
“I had a very brief conversation with James Shaw acknowledging the success of the Greens overnight,” Ardern said.
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He said he would speak to the Greens in the next few days, in order to work out some sort of government arrangement in the next two to three weeks, even before the final votes are counted.
“There is a precedent for the formation of governments before the final counts have been made, when it is clear that there is a mandate and it is clear that there is a mandate for that. [this election]Ardern said.
But it seemed to water down the idea of a deep association with the Greens. The trust and supply agreement with the party in the previous legislature granted the Party three ministerial posts and a parliamentary undersecretary.
Those positions may now return to Labor.
Ardern was ambiguous when asked on Sunday if non-Labor MPs could win ministerial posts.
“That seems like a very premature conversation to me,” he said. He added that he had had “very early talks with other parties, but still a very clear mandate for Labor.”
It was a refrain repeated throughout Sunday. Ardern was happy to speak to the Greens, but the evening’s numbers were clear: Labor doesn’t need party votes to form a government.
Ardern described this as “consensus building.”
“Everyone will have seen that I have been a consensus builder, but I also need to work with the mandate that Labor has given me,” he said.
It also appears that Labor will opt for a much looser governance arrangement than the coalition and trust and supply arrangements it had in the previous term, which saw the party cede ministerial position to other parties, both inside and outside the cabinet.
Instead, Ardern appears to be looking for what she describes as a “consultation agreement.”
“During a period of the MMP government there have been a series of agreements: there have been trust and supply agreements, there have been consultation agreements, I do not want to draw any conclusions at this time,” he said.
“What is clear is that we have a mandate to go ahead and form a government.”
A consultation agreement would likely mean that the Greens have no influence over government decisions in the way that both NZ First and the Greens have had this mandate.
An absolute majority of Labor means that whatever government deal is formed, the party will be able to get away with most issues.
Ardern appears to have taken the huge shift by center-right voters towards Labor very seriously, which could be a problem for the Greens. When asked if the Labor-Green victory was a progressive victory, he objected.
“I think last night’s vote was a vote of confidence in the plan we have on Covid response and recovery.
“That, for me, was a very clear mandate and that’s also what was shared with me throughout the campaign,” Ardern said.
He even alluded to the fact that New Zealand could still be a progressive country under a center-right government, something that will sound the alarm bells for the Greens, who are concerned about the effect of the turn of former national voters towards Labor.
“I would like to think that New Zealand has always been a relatively progressive country, even at times when it may have had a center-right government, you still see some of those problems of conscience,” Ardern said.