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Celebrations for ACT’s extraordinary victory are likely to last well into the night.
After years of being kept on life support by Epsom voters, ACT leader David Seymour has raised his party from the dead.
ACT scored 6.7 percent at the time the Star-Times went to print, the result unheard of even three years ago, thanks to disgruntled domestic voters and longtime NZ First supporters.
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You will see 10 MPs join Seymour in Parliament.
In 2017, ACT garnered a measly 0.5 percent of the vote, or just 13,075 votes, surviving only by dint of Seymour’s blue seat in Epsom, long held by ACT, thanks to national supporters voting strategically.
Keeping the seat allowed ACT to retain a seat in Parliament even though it has fallen well below the 5 percent threshold in the previous five elections.
ACT’s Houdini-style escape from political oblivion is entirely due to Seymour; Three years ago he was still a practically unknown, with almost zero name recognition.
But an unlikely twist on the entertainment show Dancing with the starsand his advocacy of euthanasia through his End-of-Life Choice Act, raised the profile of the ACT leader and his standing among voters.
Seymour has also been assiduous, however, in targeting small but important constituencies, including the influential gun lobby, after being the only MP to vote against Labor’s gun buyback laws, which are hastily passed in Parliament in the wake of the Christchurch mosque murders.
His advocacy of controversial speakers under the banner of free speech laws also cemented him as the anti-establishment voice, courting many former NZ First supporters.
Seymour brings a lot of unfamiliar faces to Parliament with him, although his number two, Brooke van Velden, is well known in Parliament for her work guiding you through the End of Life Election Act.
The party’s third-ranked MP, Nicole McKee, also has some public profile through her advocacy as head of the Council of Licensed Firearms Owners.
Others include a high school teacher, a sea kayaker and deck builder, a self-employed businesswoman, a farmer, and a mental health worker, among others.
Academic Grant Duncan said ACT supporters participating in the recent Stuff-Massey’s poll of more than 70,000 voters suggested that Seymour’s support was heavily skewed toward men (79.5 percent of those who participated in the poll compared to 61.2 percent overall), and there were a slightly higher representation of business owners.
Former UnitedFuture leader Peter Dunne says Seymour should enjoy the moment while he can because there will be a rough road ahead with his pool of untested first-time MPs.
Dunne should know; He took UnitedFuture from zero to hero almost overnight in 2002, following a successful leadership debate, which catapulted seven more MPs with him.
But three years later, the caucus was in disarray when disagreements broke out between Dunne and United’s Christian faction over issues including the controversial “coup” ban.
Dunne said Seymour’s biggest challenge would be lowering the expectations of his new MPs.
“People when they are first chosen think that they have been chosen on their own merits, on their own ideas, and that now they can pursue their hobbies and everything else. You actually have to be disciplined and understand what the team brand is and stick with that. “
They would also be under personal pressure, especially those who did not expect to be in Parliament until very recently.
“There will be problems that they will have to deal with, for example leaving their existing jobs, getting their family used to the idea that they will be away several days a week and this is not something they do part time; there are many challenges below the surface that will need to be addressed and resolved well in advance if they are to work effectively. “
Dunne said he believed Seymour had done a good job in the last three years; partly because of the End of Life Choice Law, but also because of being so “stubborn and on the message.”
But the test would ensure that last night’s success “wasn’t unique.”
History suggests it may not be easy: At its peak in the 1990s, ACT scored about seven percent.
But their support began to wane as National’s fortunes revived, initially under former leader Don Brash (who later ran ACT for a brief stint), and later during the John Key and Bill English years.
ACT’s downfall was also accelerated by a series of scandals and its loss of leadership following the retirement of former ACT leader Richard Prebble.