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SYDNEY, Australia – New Zealand’s popular Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is expected to return to power in this week’s general election, and polls will give her Labor Party a comfortable double-digit lead over the National Party, plus conservative.
An especially strong result could even give Labor the country’s first majority rule since an electoral reform in the mid-1990s that empowered minority parties and favored coalitions.
But New Zealand’s proportional voting system could also lead to some surprises, and Ardern has been vague about his plans for a possible second term.
This is how the campaign has developed and what to watch out for when the results come in on Saturday.
What issues are shaping the race?
Support for Ms Ardern has risen for months, primarily due to her successful handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
He led a comprehensive virus elimination campaign centered on a “go hard, go early” approach, with borders locked starting in March, expanded testing and contact tracing, and a four-tier alert system that made clear what expected of everyone.
Her daily briefings with Ashley Bloomfield, the chief health officer, turned into appointment visits in part because Ms. Ardern displayed comfort and solidarity while letting science determine policy.
He also connected directly with his constituents, often turning to Facebook Live late at night, where he clarified complex decisions, answered questions and identified with what he called New Zealand’s “five million team”.
New Zealanders, who felt sympathy for Ms Ardern after her response last year to the Christchurch terror attacks and the White Island volcano eruption, grew even more loyal and proud when their prime minister came to be seen as the antithesis. of President Trump and his response to the pandemic.
New Zealand first announced the end of community transmission of the virus in May. After a new group emerged in August, the country reverted to a selective lockdown on Auckland, its largest city, until the virus faded again.
In total, the country has registered fewer than 2,000 cases and only 25 deaths.
“In this electoral campaign, everything that happened before the virus no longer mattered: the first two years no longer matter, and the only thing people are voting for is the last eight months, and which party will be the strongest and safest . over the next three years, ”said Morgan Godfery, a political commentator who specializes in issues affecting indigenous Maori. “And that is why Jacinda Ardern and the Labor Party are so popular – they are the only answer to that.”
Were New Zealanders Happy With Ardern Before Covid?
It was a mixed picture. Ms. Ardern’s worldwide popularity as a liberal standard-bearer has generally outpaced his love for her at home.
As recently as January, the elections were expected to be fairly close, in part because Ms Ardern had failed to deliver on many of her 2017 campaign promises, especially those related to creating a welfare-focused economy that reduces the gap between rich and poor.
Income inequality has barely budged, along with child poverty, as housing costs have continued to rise, leaving more and more New Zealanders out of the market. And the government’s efforts to increase supply have done little to alleviate the problem.
Labor pledged to increase the housing stock by 100,000 in a decade, but lowered its own target last year after only 258 affordable homes were built.
Ms. Ardern has pointed to an increase in the minimum wage as evidence of her government’s commitment, but overall, the legislation her government has passed worked at the edges of the economy. Even the pandemic has produced what economists describe as an orthodox response focused on stimulus for infrastructure, small businesses and exports.
If you win big this time, what will you be trying to accomplish in your second term?
It is difficult to say. During the campaign against Judith Collins, the leader of the National Party, Ms. Ardern was disciplined and very lazy.
“It’s a very status quo type of campaign. There are no great promises of it, “said Ben Thomas, former press secretary of the National Party. “’We kept you safe; we guide New Zealand through Covid. ‘ That’s the sales pitch. “
Mr. Godfery agreed. “At no point has it become clear, not even in the debates where Jacinda Ardern seemed to go out of her way not to talk about politics, exactly what she represents for the next three years, other than what has already been done,” he said.
Election results can dictate the extent of your boldness. If Labor wins a majority, Ms Ardern may actually be more cautious, as she seeks to hold on to traditional National Party voters who have voted for Labor.
“Theoretically, it is now unchained. She could do whatever she wanted, ”Hartwich said. “But I don’t think he will, because he will probably be thinking about the next election. The more successful you are, the more centrist you are likely to be. “
However, if Ms Ardern and Labor have to form a coalition government with the Greens, they may push her to the left and push her to move more quickly.
Climate change would likely become a higher priority, along with efforts to break the cycle of intergenerational poverty and intergenerational wealth – problems that can be found elsewhere, but are especially urgent in New Zealand, where there are no taxes on property. capital gains, and poverty has entrenched itself in some parts of the country. Granting more local autonomy to Maori communities could also be on the cards.
“Working with the Greens will give you the opportunity to expand your repertoire of how to implement policies that take care of people,” said Jennifer Curtin, Director of the Institute for Public Policy at the University of Auckland. “In fact, you may have more space to represent the things you aspire to with the type of language you use.”
What else do I need to know?
New Zealanders will also decide on two ballot initiatives. The first involves voluntary euthanasia. The End of Life Choice Act would give New Zealanders the option to legally apply for help ending their lives, if they meet certain criteria, including suffering from a terminal illness that is likely to cause death within six months .
If it passes, as expected, New Zealand would become the sixth country to approve assisted dying, along with several states in the United States and Australia.
The second referendum, if passed, would legalize the recreational use of marijuana.
During the campaign, Ms. Ardern recognized her own marijuana use (“a long time ago,” she said), placing it squarely in the national mainstream.
About 80 percent of New Zealanders have tried marijuana, according to independent studies, more than double the rate of Australians and well above what Americans report. But polls suggest that the initiative, which requires voters to pass specific regulations for the creation of a legal market rather than just a general principle of legalization, will likely fail. Only Green voters support the marijuana proposal by a wide margin in the polls.
Natasha Frost contributed reporting from Rotorua, New Zealand. Yan Zhuang contributed research from Melbourne, Australia.
