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The LeoLabs space junk radar near Naseby in Central Otago has been involved in measuring the risk of a major collision in low orbit.
There is up to a 20 percent chance of a major collision between two pieces of space debris on Friday afternoon, warns a US company that monitors New Zealand’s space debris.
The Californian company LeoLabs said it was monitoring two “large missing” objects with a combined mass of 2.8 tons that, according to models, would pass 25 meters of each other in low orbit at an altitude of 991 kilometers.
Scientists have been concerned since 1978 about a collision in space called “Kessler Syndrome” that could set off a chain reaction that brings down working satellites.
Rocket Lab spokeswoman Morgan Bailey said that given the size, speed and proximity of the objects LeoLabs is monitoring, “everyone in the space industry will be watching it closely with concern.”
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It was too early to say whether any collisions could require Rocket Lab to change its plans to launch its 14th orbital mission, which is currently scheduled to take place from the Mahia Peninsula next Wednesday, he said.
Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in the United States, tweeted that if a collision occurred, the disaster would be “very bad.”
LeoLabs built a multi-million dollar space radar near Naseby in Central Otago last year to track hundreds of thousands of pieces of space junk.
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LeoLabs has an application that allows people to track satellites and displays space junk.
Even objects a few centimeters in diameter had the potential to shatter a satellite “creating a cloud of debris that spreads around the world,” said CEO Dan Ceperley. Stuff at the time.
However, the objects that could collide on Friday are much larger.
Forbes reported that they are a missing Russian satellite and a spent Chinese rocket.
The Naseby radar has been used to track trash, according to LeoLabs.
His model shows the collision or close pass that occurs over the Weddell Sea, near Antarctica.
Ironically, the LeoLabs warning came less than a week after Rocket Lab founder Peter Beck told CNN he was concerned the space was “too full.”
Their concerns seemed to center on the growing challenges Rocket Lab faced in choosing a clear path for launches as the number of operating satellites circling the Earth grows exponentially.
But Bailey said space junk was also becoming more of a concern.
Although the threat LeoLabs was monitoring was not an everyday event, there were collision risks on a daily basis, he said.
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University of Auckland physics professor Richard Easther says that debris from a collision would travel at speeds much faster than a bullet.
University of Auckland physics professor Richard Easther said that if the 2.8-ton collision occurred, it would be “irrelevant where the impact occurred, as the resulting debris would continue to travel in orbit at high speed.” .
At an altitude of 991 km, the two objects were not in a “super low orbit”, and debris at that height could be expected to remain in orbit for some time, he said.
“It’s going to leave a mess. So lots, lots of uncontrollable debris.”
The pieces would move at speeds of about 28,000 km / h, much faster than a bullet, he said.
When the number of orbiting objects doubled, it increased the chance of a collision by a factor of four, he said.
A collision would create a large number of very small objects that would be floating in an uncontrolled orbit, which could result in more collisions and make it difficult for future satellites to use certain orbits, he said.
Countries operating in space, including New Zealand, must cooperate with each other on measures such as mitigating space debris to prevent that from happening, he said.
A spokesman for the Ministry of Enterprise, Innovation and Employment said it was not qualified to comment on Friday’s risk.
“We are very focused on space sustainability and we ensure that any launch from New Zealand adheres to best practice orbital debris mitigation guidelines with the aim of minimizing the impact on the space environment,” he said.
“Our focus is also why we partnered with LeoLabs to configure their Kiwi Space Radar and why we worked with 95 other countries last year to agree on the United Nations Guidelines for the Long-Term Sustainability of Outer Space.”
