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An explosion of light in the polls for the Maori Party shows that it potentially has a better chance of winning a seat in Parliament than NZ First.
This reformed Parliament could eventually even see the Maori Party take on the role of “kingmaker,” according to the candidate leading the impeachment.
A Māori Television-Curia Research vote poll in Waiariki’s Maori electorate shows a close fight with the current Tāmati Coffey 12%, ahead of Maori party candidate Rawiri Waititi.
The poll of 500 people found that 38 percent intended to vote for Coffey, while 26 percent did so for Waititi, with a quarter still undecided. Vision NZ’s Hannah Tamaki was a distant third with 2 percent.
MAJOR PARTY / Supplied
Maori party candidate for Waiariki, Rawiri Waititi.
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There are seven Maori electorates, and the Labor Party currently has them all. Waiariki covers the Bay of Plenty.
University of Auckland professor Dr Lara Greaves said the survey showed Waiariki “is still up for grabs.”
In 2017, second-place candidates in Waiariki and Te Tai Hauāuru, Coffey and Adrian Rurawhe, overcame larger deficits in equivalent polls to win, he said.
“I think the Maori Party has a better chance than New Zealand First [to get into Parliament] based on some of these surveys. “
SUPPLIED / Stuff
Tamati Coffey, a Labor MP from the Waiariki electorate, which includes Taupo and Rotorua.
She said that even if NZ First doubled its voting numbers, it was not enough to reach the 5 percent threshold.
“They are not going to win Northland, there is not going to be a deal and the voters are not going to give them Northland. So I think his chances are incredibly low relative to the Maori Party taking one of these seats. “
NZ First was bouncing between 1% and 1.9% in the latest TV polls from late September.
Greaves said the Maori Party could even win a second seat if his party’s vote increased from 1% to the 1.5% for which it has been voting.
ROBERT KITCHEN / Things
Maori Party co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer and Te Tai Hauāuru Labor incumbent Adrian Rurawhe in the Whakarongotai Marae on the Kāpiti coast last week.
Before the poll, he thought Coffey would definitely fill the position, but now “he’s much closer than I expected.”
A victory could still complicate post-election parliamentary arithmetic if Labor fails to reach 61 seats.
Polls covering other Maori electorates showed that Labor in office had a solid to very strong advantage over the Maori party.
Coffey said Waiariki’s election was “by no means a fait accompli” and that his party made significant regional investments and connections with the Maori Labor group.
“I don’t need the polls to tell me that our people actually appreciate the progress we’ve made in the last three years for the people here,” Coffey said.
Waititi said the 12 percent gap was “a long way off.”
He claimed that he had heard on the ground in Waiariki that Coffey had not worked enough and that he was not a “kanohi kitea”, a face seen in the electorate.
“If you are a deputy for the first time, you must work hard for your people … we need to see your face in the regions and outside the main centers.”
A victory of one or two seats in Parliament could prepare the party to build toward a “king-maker position” in the 2023 elections, he said.
Coffey said he had not seen Waititi “at all” around the electorate in the last term.
“So it’s quite daring for him to make those claims. I don’t need a political opponent to tell me how much I’ve worked for the last three years. “
Coffey said the Maori Party would have “very little” impact in Parliament with a single seat.
“I offer a seat for Waiariki around the decision-making table, which is not something he can offer.”
