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The three-way battle for the Auckland Central electorate is turning into a tighter race: Labor’s Helen White leading 35%, National’s Emma Mellow 30% and Green Party’s Chlöe Swarbrick 26% .
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The race between Helen White, Emma Mellow and Chlöe Swarbrick is shrinking. Source: Q + A
Colmar Brunton’s latest Q&A poll in Auckland Central shows a small gap between candidates.
Auckland Central Candidate:
Work – Helen White 35%
National – Emma Mellow 30%
Green Party – Chlöe Swarbrick 26%
ACT – Felix Poole 4%
New Zealand Sustainable Party – Vernon Tava two%
Tea Party – Dominic Hoffman Dervan one%
NZ First – Jenny Marcroft one%
Don’t know / refused 9%
Appearing on the show this morning, White told host Jack Tame that he would work “really hard” if he won the seat.
On the possibility of the Greens and Labor splitting the electorate vote, White said he “would love” for Swarbrick to back off, “but I don’t think he will.”
“I have always said that it is very important that we do not divide the vote of the left, I have never been complacent about this. It is a really important race for Labor and for the city. I would not like to take any chances. I would divide that vote,” he said.
Swarbrick responded by saying that “maybe there is a bit of an underestimation of independent thinking that people in Auckland Central have.”
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Helen White, Emma Mellow and Chlöe Swarbrick give their presentations to voters at Q + A. Source: Q + A
“No one has a right to this electorate and it is the voters of Auckland Central who will decide who will represent them in Auckland Central.”
“They have shown in the past … that they value hard work, independent thinking and boots on the ground. For the past three years, despite being a roster MP for the Greens, I had my boots on the ground.” .
When asked if the Greens risked splitting the vote, Swarbrick said that “during five elections, the Greens ran party ballot drives, but we are still possibly blamed for splitting the vote.”
Tame asked Mellow why he was not resonating at the level of former Electoral MP Nikki Kaye: “I am working incredibly hard on the ground, I am very encouraged by this poll,” Mellow said.
“The people of Auckland Central need a person with entrepreneurial and entrepreneurial experience who is a strong advocate for small businesses in Parliament because we are facing the biggest economic crisis in a century.
“We know that businesses create jobs, not government, and they need a voice in Parliament.”
A different story can be seen in support for the party, with Labor 47% significantly ahead of the national at 28%.
Party support in Auckland Central
Labor Party 47%
National Party 28%
Green Party 13%
ACT match 6%
The Feast of Opportunities (ABOVE) 2.2%
New Zealand first 1.7%
Sustainable New Zealand Party 0.6%
Don’t know / refused 5%
By comparison, National received 39% in the 2017 election and Labor received 38%. In 2014, Labor received just 22% versus 45% for National.
The Auckland Central race gained momentum after incumbent Nikki Kaye announced her retirement in July, two days after Judith Collins took over the leadership of the National Party from Todd Muller.
Kaye retired the Labor seat in 2008, at the time after twice defeating Jacinda Ardern and defeating contender Helen White in the last election.
Labor lawyer Helen White told 1 NEWS in August that it was “a really challenging time” in Auckland Central.
Colmar Brunton Auckland Central Q + A survey. Source: 1 NEWS
“Some things were neglected for a long time and in fact need to be fixed and there are a lot of good plans and it is really important that we have a voice in government.”
Almost a month before Kaye revealed her intention to leave politics, Chlöe Swarbrick announced her candidacy to run for Auckland Central.
Swarbrick spoke about wanting to turn the electorate green.
“I think I have the dedication, I have the track record and I live here,” he said in August. “I love being here. I have run small businesses here, this is my home and I look forward to representing it.”
It wasn’t until August that Emma Mellow, who worked as a senior communications manager, was announced as a candidate for the National Party.
“I am a young liberal woman living in central Auckland, but more importantly, I am part of an amazing machine run by Judith Collins and the National Party,” Mellow said at the time.
* Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding, and don’t know / deny are additional.
Between 24 and 30 September 2020, 502 eligible voters from the Auckland Central electorate were surveyed by landline (251) or from Colmar Brunton’s online panel (251). The maximum sampling error is approximately ± 4.4% points at the 95% confidence level. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts by age, gender and ethnicity in Auckland Central.
