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This story was originally published on RNZ.co.nz and republished with permission.
Going abroad has been a rite of passage for young New Zealanders for decades, but Covid-19 has prompted thousands of migrant Kiwis to return.
However, beyond the raw numbers, little is known about exactly who will return and how long they will stay.
Liu Chen / RNZ
Beyond the gross numbers, little is known about exactly who will return to New Zealand and how long they intend to stay.
At least one economist says that claims that there is a large influx of long-term returnees is a myth.
Mark is in controlled isolation at the Pullman Hotel in Auckland with his partner and two children.
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The family accelerated plans to return from Sydney when the coronavirus began to affect their job security.
“In Australia, we don’t have the right to a big social safety net, we have Medicare and things like that. I certainly felt more vulnerable. I had a 20 percent pay cut and not being an Australian citizen we didn’t have access to the central bank and all its services. Benefits “.
Mark said Morning report I knew several expats who had submitted plans to return.
“I also heard the same from a couple of friends in Europe who are looking to come back, but need to sit still now while they have a job … some others [are] considering it in the next six months mainly those based in Australia ”.
Massey University sociology professor Paul Spoonley said that prior to the shutdown, New Zealand received 160,000 permanent migrants a year, mainly in the category of skilled migrants, and 310,000 temporary migrants and study visa holders, many of whom which were also eligible to work.
“We have just eliminated a significant part of our skills supply in terms of temporary and permanent migrants and the majority of New Zealanders are returning, so we need to understand where they can fill the gaps and what other gaps are not going to be filled by the Returning New Zealanders “.
Spoonley said better data collection was needed at the border.
Katie Scotcher / RNZ
Professor Paul Spoonley says we need better data collection at the border.
New Zealand Statistics data shows that as of March 20, 66,200 New Zealanders have arrived in the country and 25,100 have left.
Figures for August and September are provisional, but of the more than 30,000 total arrivals between April and July, 4,000 were New Zealand citizens who returned to settle for at least 12 months.
Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens said there was no flood of New Zealanders returning home to rest; in fact, they returned less than usual.
“It is a complete myth. The number of New Zealanders entering New Zealand from abroad each week is about a third of the normal number. Actually, it is an incredibly low number of people entering the country.”
Stephens said that with no foreigners entering the country and hardly anyone leaving, net migration had jumped from 40,000 a year just before Covid to effectively zero.
If re-elected, a Labor-led government will allocate 10 percent of managed isolation sites to critical workers, allowing about 1,400 into the country each month.
But there is a question of how people can actually get to New Zealand.
The president of the Association of Travel Agents, Brent Thomas of House of Travel, said that the flights were significantly more expensive, which could be a barrier for some.
“It’s not just about jumping over old routes and coming back like you’ve always done. It’s about how to actually cross, what borders, if you need quarantine or where you can just transit, so it’s very complex to come back from certain parts of the world that’s why people use travel agencies. “
In a written statement, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) said it had provided consular assistance to many thousands of New Zealanders who were abroad when the pandemic struck.
“Now that the air corridors are open to most of the world, most Kiwis who want to return have done so.
“But we know of a small number of Kiwis who have stayed abroad longer than planned due to cost, limited availability or flight cancellation. MFAT closely monitors situations that affect New Zealanders’ ability to return home. provides consular assistance where requested. “
Spoonley said it was not known how many of the New Zealanders will eventually return.
“I suspect there are quite a few who are sitting on their beds in London or in an apartment in Sydney waiting for things to improve, and when they do not improve they will continue to return to New Zealand.
“So the return of New Zealanders will be one of the key migration issues in 2020. We just don’t know how big or how long it’s going to exist.”
However, Spoonley said his colleagues in Europe were projecting it could be 2023 or even 2024 before international mobility returned to normal.
This story was originally published on RNZ.co.nz and republished with permission.
