Five things to keep in mind in the first US presidential debate

OPINION: With the first of three US presidential debates scheduled for Wednesday night (New Zealand time), those following US policy are eager to start the first showdown.

No one should expect the debates between Donald Trump and Joe Biden to be studied by future students trying to learn the nuances of art. Between Trump’s macho, fact-free bravado and Biden’s stumbling over words, the debates promise to have embarrassing moments. However, the former will be entertaining and potentially meaningful.

Research shows that debates rarely move polls, and never much. However, the first debate is more important because there are still more undecided people and they have less information about the candidates at this stage.

The US presidential election has been relatively stable for months, with Biden holding a 6-10 point lead in national polls and a smaller but steady lead in swing states. Trump has tried to attack him as weak, senile and a puppet of the “socialist” left, but so far the attacks have not worked.

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The election appears to be largely a referendum on Trump’s leadership, and the majority of the people have made up their minds. In fact, research suggests that most viewers enter a debate with an impression of the candidates, and the debates tend to reinforce, rather than change, impressions.

But big mistakes made by a candidate can have an impact, as some famous examples show. So in the debate, Trump must find a way to change the race by knocking Biden off course.

What should we expect in the debates? Here are five things to keep in mind.

First, can any of the candidates exceed expectations? For most of the campaign season, Trump has done Biden the favor of setting extremely low expectations for him. Giving him the nickname “Sleepy Joe,” Trump has portrayed Biden as an elusive old fool, supported by manipulators and unable to speak without a teleprompter. More recently, however, he has tried to change tack, bizarrely suggesting that Biden’s competent performances are due to him taking performance-enhancing drugs.

Regardless, neither Biden nor Trump are big debaters. Given Biden’s dominant leadership in the polls, he just needs to avoid major mistakes. Trump, on the other hand, must overcome the expectation that he will have a lot of bragging but little substance and little command of facts and politics.

Second, can Biden appear presidential or will Trump steer him off course? Because the election is primarily a referendum on the Trump presidency, and polls indicate that most voters seem to have had enough of the chaos and pettiness, Biden must continue to present himself as calm, measured and compassionate, focused on uniting the country and solve big problems like Covid-19 and race relations.

Trump will deploy his usual arsenal: insults, interruptions and imagined disasters if his opponent is elected. In the 2016 debates, Trump interrupted Hillary Clinton much more than she interrupted him; Expect him to do the same with Biden. Also expect him to lash out at Biden’s energy, intellect, and age, and paint pictures of unrest and socialist control if Biden becomes president. Biden has to walk a line between defending his vision and his abilities, but not being sucked into macho confusion.

Third, how much will Biden try to verify Trump’s facts in real time? The moderator, Chris Wallace, would normally not hesitate to correct the facts, but the agreed rules for this debate are that he will not. Biden will have his hands full if Trump is in his usual mode of factless spiel, and he must be careful not to get too distracted by Trump tales.

Fourth, will voters come out thinking that a fair election is possible? Election integrity is one of the issues to be debated and possibly the most prominent. As he did in 2016, Trump has gone to great lengths to portray the election as rigged against him and does not promise to accept its outcome.

Even though he now runs the government, he still claims that the system is corrupt and incapable of being fair and accurate. In an odd twist, the challenger, Biden, must assure voters that the Trump administration can administer an election with a fair outcome. Expect this to be one of the most contentious topics in the debate.

Finally, what role will Trump’s record play? Six months ago, he could have touted his administration of a high-powered economy and perhaps his increased military funding as achievements. But mismanagement of the Covid-19 pandemic has decimated the economy, and the barrage of support for Biden from former generals makes pointing out those accomplishments risky. Trump is likely to point to recent improvements in the economy but, even more so, he will point out how much worse things could be under Biden. How successful that tactic will be remains to be seen.

The bottom line is that Trump must change the trajectory of the race. So far, he seems determined to do so by influencing voting systems. The debate offers him a chance to present himself as the superior choice compared to Biden, and not just a sore loser who must depend on crying over the electoral processes his own government runs.

* Ted Zorn, originally from the United States and with dual New Zealand-American citizenship, is Professor of Organizational Communication and Director of Executive Development at Massey Business School in Auckland.