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The TVNZ poll comes one night after Newshub’s latest Reid research poll, which had Labor at 50.1 percent, Nationals at 29.6, Greens at 6.5 percent and ACT at 6.3 percent.
Jacinda Ardern is at 54 percent as the preferred prime minister, unchanged from the previous poll. Judith Collins is at 23 percent, five points higher.
David Seymour is showing at 2 and Winston Peters at 1.
Auckland University politics professor Lara Greaves says the big question is, will Labor hold out long enough to rule alone?
While they are trending down, the trend is down from all-time highs.
“I think ultimately too little too late [for National]. I think Judith Collins has a lot to change in a short time. I think she knew from becoming a leader that it would become a challenge.
“I think in general the downward trend in Labor is not due to their incompetence or competition from National, it is more a function of the fact that New Zealand has been through this collective trauma of COVID-19 and the crisis. We know from study after study that when there is a crisis in a country, people tend to cling to the government of the day. “
Regarding New Zealand First, with a 1 percent decline, Greaves says: “I think at this point we probably have to say that there is a very, very small chance that they will come back … it seems pretty unlikely.”
As for the Greens, Greaves believes they may be out of the danger zone. Polls are often slightly better than your election result.
“They’re headed there … for the Greens to be safe, they usually have to go up a couple of percent and I guess we’ll see, especially now, that people are settled on the campaign and potentially get a few more votes. It will come out of Labor. In the next weeks “.
What will be interesting in the election is that Parliament is likely to be a four-party affair, Greaves says.
“That is going to create an incredibly strange dynamic where Labor has this Green flank party on the left and Nacional has this right flanking party from ACT – we are not going to have center parties that have that type. coalition or blackmail potential … what he’s going to do is put a lot of power in ACT or the Green Party depending, of course, on who’s ruling. “
The election will be held on October 17.
RNZ
